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RE: Crypto - Is the party about to begin again?
Yes, there is 2014 to consider, especially since most of the price action up to now for 2018 closely resembles that year as compared to others. That being said, in general, the 4th quarter is often a good time to be long crypto, with only a few outliers like in 2014.
That "outlier" in 2014 is the most important piece of data. The market has a way better chance of going that route because the 2017 pump/dump was similar to the 2013 pump/dump.
Obviously, I hope I'm wrong... but I feel like this post is extremely biased and full of wishful thinking. I've been guilty of the same move on multiple occasions... thought there was going to be another bull run in the summer.
It's not wishful thinking, it's just called using selective data to make an argument. ;)
In all seriousness though, even if you include the last 5 years, the entire chart, it still makes the 4th quarter overwhelmingly bullish on average. With 2014 being the only negative one.
Though like you said, that one might be the most applicable to the current environment.
However, when you combine that seasonal data with the fact that the crypto markets have now erased all of the euphoric price action starting in late 2017, it may also give credence to the possibility of bullish price action ahead.
We will know for sure in just over 3 months time.