虚拟货币如何估值 Valuation Models for Cryptocurrency #1

虚拟货币可以说是完全颠覆了传统的以收益率为基准的金融概念。

市场成交价格变动之外，很多虚拟货币是没有红利的。或者说红利的内涵不再局限于金钱意义上的分红，而是可以转化为更抽象的好处。

在这种情况下，如何给虚拟货币定价，采用什么模型能够更好的预测虚拟货币的价值？

鄙人先来抛砖引玉，希望大家可以各抒己见。

Cryptocurrency is shaping the world as we see it, and one of the major impact is that it has completely overhauled the valuation model of financial products.

To start off, in most cases there is no 'dividend' other than those in a superficial sense.

Under these circumstances, how do we better value cryptocurrencies, and better yet, predict the trend of their market values?

Below are some of my thoughts - any other opinions are theories are most welcome!

第一，大部分虚拟货币没有实体经济的支撑，但是最终还是要和实体经济对接，只是会以什么样的形式，每个人有不同的看法。所以估值的第一个要素就是，作为交换媒介，可以转化为多少购买力。这个购买力不是说可以在虚拟货币交易所能以什么样的价格成交，而是直接作为交换媒介存在的购买力。（虽然现在这两者之间的界限已经越来越小）

第二，作为新型的‘货币’，它的价值体现在大众的接受度。接受度又可以转化为流通性。

第三，安全性。越安全的虚拟货币在一定程度上就越容易被接受，从而成为储藏价值的工具。

第四，虚拟货币兼有商品和货币的双重特征，在估值的时候我认为商品性和货币性的比重可能会影响货币的价值。

1. In most cases there are no real 'business activity' behind the cryptocurrencies, especially for the case of most altcoins. In the end it has to come down to purchase power - not in the sense of cryptocurrency prices in exchanges, but in real term, what physical goods and services they can buy.

2. How widely acceptable they are - the more accepted, the more liquid is the coin.

3. Safety. Infrastructure, or code, makes a huge difference in terms of value. This is demonstrated by the recent price hike of ION following a hard fork which fixed one major attack.

4. Perception of how much a coin is considered a 'product' compared to a 'currency'. 

In next session I will discuss (and hypothesize) some mathematical model of Crypto valuation.