RE: Crypto: Hope for Venezuela?
Mathematically it seems to make sense that if you owed someone $100K (say for what's left of your mortgage) but $100K become as if nothing due to hyper inflation, they you would seem to owe not so much..
But the real killer is that the bread that costs you say 3 bux now costs 10,000 bux. Or rather, it seems that way, since the 3 bux are now like 3 cents and you have to come up with something akin to this new price of bread.. and you make nothing because everyday what you 'made' working yesterday is now worth nothing..
As long as there is government and banks they will try to ensure they collect on the debt in some way... However, when money's worth nothing, confidence in the civil structures of society fail, and people flee, or there is enough unrest that worrying about food and shelter becomes more important than worrying about debt..
And fleeing, still 'costs' something to the people who transport you. They want some kind of exchange for services..
I remember there were issues that I tired to follow a few years back with Zimbabwe. I imagine if you look into the effects from that historic example, you can get an idea of what's to come for us all if/when economic systems in a country collapse.. I am sure there are probably tons of academic articles about just such a thing..
However every situation would be somewhat unique, as systems involving humans typically morph and change to accommodate human interactions and reactions to situations... (i.e. I have read but not explored the idea that some economic indicators that were used to measure the health of an economy are no longer valid because investors used them/reacted to them and the markets adapted to compensate. I have not explored this idea in any way, and the articles I read about it are probably staledated by now)
Thank you for your amazing comment @darrenfj
I'm only trying to figure out how hyperinflation can affect those with debts. I do completly agree on everything you said.
I remember hearing from Polish older generation, that when strong inflation hit out country (back in the days) then most lost their savings but many got weatlhy because money they borrowed to start up businesses.
Or got a morgage, which they could pay off a year or two later pretty much fully (assuming that they survived financial crisis somehow).
So Im really wondering, how does it work with debts during hyperinflation?
Yours
Piotr
Hi @crypto.piotr
Typically banks do not have a clause in its mortgage document dealing with inflation (hyper or otherwise). Therefore regardless of the value of the money being depreciated you still pay the same amount to the bank, usually, monthly. Whilst the price of essential goods and services like food, transport etc goes up in accordance with the inflation, your mortgage repayment remains the same. Meanwhile it is likely that your salary also goes up somewhat to keep pace with inflation. This makes it much easier to pay off the mortgage, provided there is no default in payment of the mortgage because typically banks do reserve a right to vary the interest rates in the event of a default.
As for preparing yourself 5 years in advance, I would think that you would have to look at inflation beating investments like gold, real estate, and possibly depository receipts for investments in securities in countries with low inflation. Although cryptocurrencies (in particular Bitcoin) have been mooted as a possible alternative for gold in the event of a crash in share market etc., it has not come to pass; Recent events have shown that cryptocurrencies tend to follow the share market trend. This could change in the future, especially if the price of gold shoots up astronomically.
I am not an economist and therefore the above in a layman's view to your questions.
Dear @devann
What an amazing comment. Thanks again for taking the time to write it all down.
Very informative. Appreciate it a lot.
Whats your profession if you don't mind me asking? Your knowledge is mindlowing.
Yours
Piotr
I am trained in law and insurance. My specialty lies in insurance law.
Dear @devann
Would you consider your job market threatened by developing technology? Like AI?
Yours
Piotr
Dear @crypto.piotr,
If we speak of developing technologies, there are many: 3dp, ai, ar, vr, kdd, iot, self-healing materials, BCI (BMI), Nuclear Energy using thorium, 2d materials like graphene etc.
Many of these technologies are being experimented and are being developed and in a decade or so we should see them put to use in unimaginable applications. Many of these applications will utilize a combinations of these technologies. For instance, we can expect ai, iot and kdd technologies to combine to produce numerous applications. Likewise, we can expect 3dp and graphene combine to produce numerous applications.
Even if we take just one of the above technologies, say, 2d materials, currently the research efforts are concentrated only on one 2d material called graphene. It is reckoned that most of the elements in the periodic table are capable of producing a unique 2 d material of its own, with very unique qualities which can be put to use in numerous imagined and unimaginable industrial applications in the future.
Our lives revolves around risks. As a business and as individuals we are always managing risks, at work, at home and everywhere else, even if we care not to admit it. We can pass some of these risks (which are called insurable risks) to insurance companies. Others, we have to manage it ourselves.
What these new technologies will do is that they will, in some cases, either reduce or completely eliminate the existing risks and in some other cases, they will create new risks. For instance, for autonomous vehicles, you may soon find that motor vehicles insurance may become redundant. However, the same autonomous vehicle, which relies on data, may be subject to the risk of data corruption and the consequent risks arising from it, which in itself may create additional types of insurance, yet not thought of. This line of reasoning can be applied to all the other technologies.
Insofar as ai is concerned I foresee, for certain, a lot of jobs of repetitive nature losing ground to robots. But ai relies on data, big data, which originates from activities, be it from human or otherwise. These knowledge derived from data is no replacement for intuitive knowledge like that readily exhibited by Einstein, Stephen Hawkins, Srinivasa Ramanujan and all the other great scientists, which does not originate from data but from certain level of consciousness. All of us are capable of exhibiting intuitive knowledge at varying degrees, although not as readily as Einstein or Stephen Hawkins. That is an abstruse subject reserved for another day!
So my argument is: Life will go on, and if you keep up with the technology and constantly upgrade yourself you have nothing to fear. Those who don't keep up, will likely suffer in every conceivable way you can think of.
Wow @devann
What an amazing comment!
Very well said.
Good point. I can already imagine that you will need to insure yourself from hacking to your vehicles ;)
ps.
Would you mind sending me short email to [email protected]? I would love to be able to keep in touch and support each other on Steemit.
I wish there would be more advanced PM/notification system developed by steemit.
No pressure of course :)
Cheers, Piotr
Dear crypto.piotr,
I have already sent you a note from my email yesterday. Please let me know if have not received it.
Thanks for the compliments! There are more deserving souls for such compliments. I enjoy reading posts by @quillfire. He writes extremely well!
I wonder if there's any documentation on what happened on the debt load in Zimbabwe at that time?
Very unlikely @darrenfj :(