June - Is Bitcoin Dead?

“The rear view mirror is always more clearer than the windshield.”

No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can learn from the past. Looking back at how the markets have performed during previous months and years can give you an idea of what may be in store for the future. Risk management is the one thing you can control while you wait for good opportunities to arise.

January 2022 closed as a red month and near its historical red average with a loss of about 16%. Bitcoin had 3 consecutive red months before the month of February finally brought some love to the market! Surprisingly, both February and March have been leading the Bitcoin bulls on a run! But the month of April wiped out ALL of those gains.

The month of April is supposed to be one of the best months for crypto! And yet there was not a single green week during the entire month! May was just the same with an entire month of red and a loss of 15%. Bitcoin has now been bleeding for 9 consecutive weeks, which is something Bitcoin hasn’t done in the last 10 years!

What’s next for Bitcoin in the month of June?

Have you ever heard of the old adage “Sell in May, go away?” Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year. The belief is that as warm weather sets in, low volumes and the lack of market participants (supposedly investors are on vacations) can make for a somewhat riskier, or at a minimum lackluster, market period.

According to the data, the three worst months to own stocks are June, August, and September. Is that a coincidence that they’re all in the summer?

Does this strategy work for the cryptocurrency markets? Maybe not. May, like the month of April, is actually considered to be one of the best months for Bitcoin. In the past decade Bitcoin has closed six green monthly candles with an average return of 17.23%! Sounds very optimistic for crypto investors…

BUT… things could be different this year. While the month of June has historically been looked at as a good month, the last two years have closed as red. Will Bitcoin continue this cycle?

For 3 consecutive months Bitcoin has closed in the red. The last time this happened was in April 2021. Following those 3 red months, Bitcoin exploded over the next 4 months and ultimately made a new all time high in early November 2021. February closed green, March closed green… and now April and May have closed red… Will the month of June continue to bring Bitcoin lower and lower? Or is a reversal in sight?

It wasn’t until the month of July in 2021 that Bitcoin started to take off to higher highs.

As always, investors and traders should be cautious this month. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index has settled at “Extreme Fear” for the past few weeks now.