Is this a BEAR market or just a DEEP correction?
When asking this question, there are a few things to consider. Taking a quick look, we can see the following:
BITCOIN has been holding up pretty decent, recently, with the price being around 2431 $. The variation as it can be seen below, is around 3.41%:
ETHEREUM on the other hand had a big break up, going directly around 220 $, meaning a 8.5% fall.
Now back on BITCOIN:
The first run of BTC this year started from January and lasted until March. The ride accounted for a 70% rise in the price, along the way. After that, a 30% pull back corrected the market at the end of March.
Starting with May, we had another powerful pull-up forcing the top with 3000 $, as you can see in the graph bellow. After that, it had a pull-down to the value of 2400 $ meaning a 20% decrease.
So far, this is a correction; a one month correction, but in no case this is a bear market. Bear market meas months and months of prices going down, with deeps of -40 or -50%, even worse sometimes.
ETHEREUM on the other hand, has performed a bit different. Looking at the last few days, we could saw a struggle for ETH to consolidate, but a major break-up happened as you can see in the graph bellow (area inside black circle). That was a big move influencing other alt-coins and we could saw big drops and that some big support levels were broken.
It is possible in the near future the decline trend to continue, but let's put a Fibonacci on that graph. Fibonacci represents some key rations that have been points of supports on the retracement or resistance on a bounce, depending how you look at it.
The firs possibility is for ETH to reach the prior low, at 215 $ and bounce back, with the condition that down trend line will be broken.
If that doesn't happen, we will reach next bottom, at 165 $ and we will have a VERY DEEP CORRECTION. If the bottom of 165 $ is reached, we will see some really big sell-offs, because, at the moment ETH is the leader of alt-coins market. They are going to move in tandem: ETH and alt-coins.
For deciding if we are in a bear market, everyone should answer at following questions:
- What is the general trend?
Short answer: Down-trend - Where is the most recent top/ bottom?
See graphics above. - Where are we relative to that?
See graphics above. - Are we forming a new trend?
No, not yet. - Where are the support and the resistance zones?
See graphics above. - Do we see a pattern or a base?
We could see a possible double bottom (See graphics above) - Crosscheck other indicators.
Fibonacci, other historiography/ graphs
Regarding this short analysis, ultimately, you are the person investing money. Interpret graphs, think, analyze and never forget: don't ever lose more money you can afford.
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See you next time @clahan
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See you next time @clahan
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People are pulling back because of the aug 1 decision. Once everything is in the clear, off we go again.
I agree with you partially. People are keeping the money in their pocket. Regarding the soft/ hard fork, well, nobody knows what will happen.. the Bear smells some fear at this point.