2020 Croatian Elections #2: Plenković Triumphs, Opposition Crushed

On the elections for Croatian Parliament, held yesterday, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), ruling right-wing party, triumphed taking 66 out of 151 seats. This is the best result of that party in 21st Century and prime minister Andrej Plenković can expect to easily form majority, either with far right Homeland Movement party or with couple of minor centrist parties and ethnic minorities which have supported present majority.

The result came as a major surprise, at least to those who – yet again – took much faith in notoriously unreliable opinion polls. Most of the pollsters expected either dead heat or victory of Restart, opposition coalition led by Social Democratic Party (SDP). That party, which had managed to surprise HDZ at last year's election for European Parliament and have its former leader and prime minister Zoran Milanović win at last presidential election, actually got humiliated, winning only 41 seats.

Defeat of SDP leader Davor Bernardić became most clear in I Electoral District (central section of Zagreb), which used to be that party's main stronghold. SDP came there third, behind left-wing coalition We Can (Možemo) and HDZ. It is very likely that Bernardić can't survive such humiliation and even he stated possibility of resignation.

Možemo is considered one of the relative winners of last elections because that coalition defied the opinion polls and won 7 seats, one of them being held by Katarina Peović, leader of Workers's Front (RF), which is going to be first far left member of Croatian Parliament in decades.

MOST, socially conservative right-wing party that helped create HDZ majorities in 2015 and 2016 before their unsuccessful attempt to bring down Plenković in 2017, managed to win 8 seats.

Coaliton of three liberal centrist parties – Party with First and Last Name (SSIP), Focus and Smart (Pametno) – managed to enter Parliament by winning 3 seats.

Croatian People's Party (HNS), elected in 2016 on SDP ticket only to intervene and help maintain Plenković's majority in 2017 and heavily despised for its corrupt practices during 2011-2015 Milanović's government, also defied the polls and managed to squeak a member into Parliament, which is expected to support Plenković. They are followed by Reformist Party, led by former deputy prime minister Radimir Čačić, forced to resign for 2009 vehicular manslaughter in Hungary, which also defied the polls and snatched the seat.

Plenković's triumph is usually explained by his skilful timing of early elections, a month after partial end of COVID-19 lockdowns and before the expected collapse of tourist season spells economic doom for the entire country. The pandemic, which was supposed to subside only to reappear in days before the actual election, probably played part in suppressing the turnout which was record low with 46 %. Low turnout in Croatia traditionally favours HDZ, which relies on voters in small rural municipalities, and fear of infection, as well as logistical problems, made many urban voters vary of going to poll stations.

Results

10 electoral districts in Croatia

HDZ – 66
Restart (SDP and left-centre parties) – 41
Homeland Movement – 16
MOST – 8
Možemo – 7
SSIP, Pametno, Fokus – 3
Reformists – 1
HNS – 1

Seats reserved for Croatian disapora

HDZ – 3

Seats reserved for ethnic minorities

Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS) – 3
independent – 5