US COVID Update - Why are we still on lockdown?

I have gotten incredibly tired of trying to use lousy data and of the politicization of science and stats. It's just too much. I was feeling way too 'ranty'. I don't like feeling that way. But here goes.

ALL the important measures (hospitalizations, ICU admissions, CFR, deaths) have trended down since at least mid-June in the US generally, and since mid-July in the “hotspot states” like CA, TX, FL, AZ, and GA. And in all those states the deaths per 1M population is still below the national average and around ¼ of that in NY and NJ. Folks, it is no longer an epidemic, and hasn't been for a month.

In the cases of TX, AZ, and FL the actual daily deaths have trending down for a couple of weeks. The only reason their data doesn't look like that is that they are still adding deaths from days to several weeks ago by checking death certificates and 'assuming' COVID-related deaths. Deaths listed by actual date of death are down by about 75% over the past 2 weeks in all three states. (This is easily visible on the AZ and FL COVID dashboards and you can find it in TX with a little effort.) GA really has never had much of a 'peak' in cases or deaths, but its 'bad numbers' are declining as well.

CA might as well be two separate states. One above the 35th parallel and one below. The “southern” CA state is still seeing an increase in cases but flat to small declining deaths. The “northern” CA state is apparently well past its peak.

So, why do the lockdowns continue? Because governors who like them are ruling by decree. And the data show that the lockdowns had little to no real impact. In every state with a real 'surge' (especially back in Mar/Apr) the easing of the epidemic is shown by the data to have begun before any lockdown could have had an effect.

In IL and MI though, both Governors have threatened their citizens with even more harsh punishments unless the docilely accept the current rotten rules. (As an aside, on those occasions when I go out I see a lot of people ignoring the rules, and more improperly wearing face masks when they do wear them. Pointless.) This is especially egregious to me here in MI because a couple of days ago the state-based media were hyping the “grim milestone” of 100,000 COVID cases in MI. Well, that's not quite here yet. What they failed to mention is that hospitalizations and ICU admissions are at the lowest rate since late Feb. And while they hype “the new death total” they totally fail to mention that the rolling 7-day moving average of COVID (-related) deaths in MI has been flat at around 6.5/day since JUNE 1, 12 WHOLE WEEKS AGO!!!

Hyping 100,000 cases of COVID with only 500 or so deaths (as compared to over 6000 deaths between Mar 10 and May 31 – a similar time frame) is like marking the “grim milestone” of 100,000 cases of the common cold (also caused by a group of coronaviruses) which also would kill a few people. (The CDC admits that common colds kill people but does not break out those deaths from other ILIs [Influenza-Like Illnesses], and does not actually count a death as caused by the flu unless a test has revealed the virus. Look at the data and you'll see that they give an “estimated range of ILI deaths” based on assumptions of how many people die with the symptoms of the flu but were not tested.) The number of cases is meaningless compared to actual deaths.

And now the CDC is admitting at least a 3% false positive rate for the tests. That means 3% of those who are tested as having the virus actually do not. (I haven't seen what the false negative % is.) 3% false positive rate is not really very bad, and getting a false positive for the virus is better than getting a false negative. But . . . that means the wildly hyped “daily new cases” is actually about 20,000 cases (in the US) less than what is reported. So, instead of 50,000 new cases per day we really are getting 30,000. And some governors are using those faulty numbers to keep their economies shut down.

The above really burns me with Gov Whitmer. I assume (I'm a giant cynic, remember) that she's angling for a Cabinet post in a Biden Admin. That means that in MI with a 30,000/day new tests rolling 7-day MA and a 3% false positive rate she is counting 900 false new cases per day, when the average number per day of new cases is only 633. That's some real bad math right there. The number of “daily new cases” is squarely with the error bars of the number of false positives. That's just weird.

So. National numbers (all based on rolling 7 day MA): new tests down about 10% from Aug 1. (People without symptoms just not seeking the test any more it seems.); new cases down about 30% since Aug. 1; new hospitalizations down about 40%; new ICU admits down about 50%; and new deaths down about 8% (should trail admissions and ICU admits now by 11-14 days). CFR down consistently day-on-day since early March. Steadily downward from 5% on June 15 to 3% now (and dipped just below 3% yesterday). Still can't get a good IFR since the infection rate is now totally hosed, but the estimates I trust seem to show an upper bound of 0.0025 and a lower bound of 0.0013. Those are numbers very similar to the (estimated) seasonal flu numbers.

The median age of death for COVID-19 is still 78-80 years old, depending on data source, and the median number of comorbidities is holding steady at 2.5 (not counting age). The mortality rate for those under 20 years of age is so small the result is within the margin or error. Schools and colleges should be re-opened in person, with appropriate provisions for the most vulnerable. And any employee who doesn't wish to work should be allowed to take a 'temporary layoff' until they feel it is safe again. So far I still have two in-person classes. I am 73 and now have a bit of high blood pressure (well under control) and am “overweight” (but not obese by BMI standards) and otherwise in quite good health. I fully intend to teach both of those classes unless EMU weenies out.

Why are we still on lockdown? My cynical take is that authoritarian governors love exercising the power and don't care about the damage that does to ordinary citizens, since it doesn't usually hurt the governors or anyone they care about. And Gov Whitmer has the nerve to threaten to make her diktats worse while blaming trump for Michiganders who are out of work. She's the one who won't let the state's citizens return to their jobs, if they still exist after her executive orders. That, to me clearly demonstrates what's going on.

Other stuff of possible interest. There are now over 50 peer-reviewed studies that show the efficacy of HCQ + Azithromycin + zinc, when given early (when symptoms appear). It doesn't help at the end stages, and neither does much of anything else. And it is cheap. Opposition to that regime may mean that 10s of thousands of Americans died when they didn't have to. Science is science. Some states are actually going back and removing 'suspect' deaths from their COVID-related, assumed, counts. Maybe it's embarrassing to count being shot to death (and other inanities) as COVID-related. If we counted COVID deaths the way we do seasonal flu deaths we would reduce the number by at least 1/3. There are none of Dr Fauci's gold standard double blind research trials that show face masks have any positive effect at all. Why doesn't he mention that? (He also seems to agree that schools should reopen in-person. For now, anyway.) There is a lot of stuff out there online that should be useful but is being ignored by those politicians who apparently are desperate to run our lives. I'd prefer they not.