US COVID Update - The sky is NOT falling.

Well, I'm still trying to keep up, but the disjuncture between what the data is/says and the 'reporting' of the data is still getting worse, and, really, I'm very tired of trying to make corrections on "the sky is falling" narratives.

Through yesterday, the numbers I think are important (new deaths to the extent they really are COVID-caused [which is less and less obvious], new hospitalizations, new ICU admits, %positive tests, etc) are all still headed down, indicating that the worst is well past us.

In fact, even though the CDC has recommended (very quietly) that we quit testing non-symptomatic individuals, the positivity rate (which pretty much every one agrees includes 3% false positives), the % testing positive has continued to decline, and has now been below 6% for 6 of the past 12 days (7 day rolling average).

Folks, people are just not getting infected as often and many fewer are being hospitalized, so the cases are milder. (In MI there seems to be a "bounty" on admitting COVID patients. $500 for regular admits, $5000 for ICU admits. Thanks, Gov wHitler, but don't try to get me to believe that doesn't lead to unnecessary admits, please.)

The number of new deaths, despite heroic efforts to go back to old death certificates and 'harvest' weeks old "new" deaths, has dropped below 1000/day for the past full week. For the math challenged that's 20/day/state (but remember we count US territories and DC and so on). In MI the actual new deaths/day (that is when listed on the actual date of death) has been below 5 since June 1. Only "backfilling" to that date keep it that high.

Even the "hot states" of CA, AZ, TX, FL, and GA are still nowhere near the deaths/1M rates of NJ/NY/CT/MA, and none are particularly close to the national rate.

The 7 day rolling MA of the CFR is still declining day-on-day, and has been below 3% for the past 10 days.

But what you see in the news is the total cases and the total deaths featured prominently, with the data I believe really tells the story buried, if it's there at all. In fact, while "total new cases" and "total new deaths" are rising (it's impossible for them to decline), rarely is how large any crease is mentioned.

We made a huge mistake by not reopening almost all the economy immediately after the original "14 days to flatten the curve" and now several petty tyrant governors appear determined to punish anyone who doesn't want to bend to them. Cuomo, Whitmer, Pritzker, and Newsome are particularly vindictive it this regard I think.

Too many people and too many groups are trying to bootstrap their personal and/or political goals through the COVID panic for my taste. In a true democratic republic the citizens would be listened to and allowed to at least help drive policy. Apparently we no longer have that.

Yesterday >740,000 test results were reported. With a 3% false positive then we would expect >22,000 false positives (i.e. "new cases" that really aren't cases at all).

Since the "new cases" reported were just over 44,000, that would mean that half of the so-called "new cases" didn't exist.

Let me point out that aside from harshing the narrative of "exploding new cases" it would also mean that the CFR is much higher than the 'official' numbers indicate. But taken together they would mean that the virus is being transmitted way less than we believed it was while being more deadly for the real at-risk population demographics.

That in turn would suggest that continued lockdowns are not just pointless but probably counter-productive. Most of those now dying of COVID 'caught' it inside and in prolonged close contact with probably multiple infected individuals -- think of multi-generational homes and various extended care facilities. That would also explain a lot of the NY/NJ/CT/MA/MI/IL death rates. Governors who sent COVID patients into group facilities (while standby facilities wen unused) killed thousands.