US COVID Update - Initiate rule by decree.

I was waiting, as I alluded before, to see if more data will improve my understanding as to what is going on. The simple, best answer is “sort of”. It turns out the data reporting may be even worse than I thought. Conflated tests (viral and antibody) make it all but impossible to truly know how many “new cases” are. Reporting deaths by motorcycle accident (or gunshot) makes it hard to trust any data reporting ”new deaths,” and “recovering” deaths from death certificates where there is no proof of viral infection is even worse. I don't see how you can have more than the roughest guides for policy using such 'data' (if I can even call it that any more). Dr Birx still says the deaths are probably overcounted by at least 25% while the news media says deaths are undercounted because . . . reasons!! And they want there to be more deaths because panic sells.

However, using what data there is through the Friday report (I have Saturday's data but won't use it because as usual not all data gets reported on the weekends – but so far it looks pretty much like last weekend's data).

For me the most interesting thing is that despite the crap data, the Case Fatality Rate continues its decline. We are testing way more people (more than 750K/day some days) and as a consequence 'finding' way more cases. However except locally we are not seeing way more COVID hospitalizations or ICU/intubation admits. (A friend of mine said that “ICU units are at capacity and being stressed.” When I asked for links there were none. I posted previously that hospitals 'like' to have their ICU units at 95-97% capacity for budgetary and personnel reasons. That is still true. Where I could find the data (a few major hospitals) their ICUs are indeed at or near capacity, but only 20% are COVID patients. The rest are largely people who put off treatment earlier who are now more serious cases and/or new serious non-COVID cases. In addition all hospitals now seem able to rapidly expand their ICU capacity from double to even 10x their normal situation.)

The second most interesting is the shape of the current new cases curve. Even with the data hijinks it sure looks like the new cases are peaking, and at a low level compared to April. Also the accompanying 'bump' to new deaths compared to news cases (with a 7-14 day lag) is small, which is reflected in the continuing decline in CFR. And both FL and TX appear to have quite possibly peaked for new cases. AZ still has problems, but its population is much smaller, and even the CDC is now reporting that a large number of AZ new cases were contracted in Mexico and then came across the border (legally) for treatment. It seems wrong to me to call them AZ cases. (That was one of the early slams against FL. It reported cases among residents and non-residents separately. Surely that would matter for reasons of tracing if nothing else. Ah, well. [And then there is that map showing what percent of cases could be traced to NY.])

And the CDC is reporting CFR as declining for 12 straight weeks. The CDC also set the infection rate as staying at or below 9% which would, per the CDC's definitions, mean COVID is no longer an epidemic. In addition, the huge majority of new cases are in those <50 years old, a non particularly vulnerable group. Quite possibly 2 factors are at work here:

1. many of the most vulnerable (including younger people with comorbidities) have already caught the virus
2. the more vulnerable are being more cautious and avoiding catching the virus. There are other possible factors, too, but those to me to likely have the biggest effects.

In MI the governor has decided that we no longer need a legislature or laws and she can rule by decree. The latest threat is if every single Michigander doesn't wear a face mask at all times when they are out of their home she will shut down the auto industry. (Really. Check out the Detroit news outlets.) MI had 681 “new cases” and the MSM has breathlessly been shouting that that is “the MOST since April” and hasn't bothered to say that there were only 7 new deaths and not all of them were “verified” to be positive for the virus nor to have occurred on the day reported. And we still don't have all of the nursing home data. The 'threat' in MI is nowhere near what it was in April. Plus, the MSM are hyping “hotspots” of new cases in MI. This is as dumb, statistically, as those “cancer clusters” that are used to scare hell out of people from time to time. The hotspots are basically just places that had fewer infections early and are getting them now. It is so close to random as to be indistinguishable from random. (As an example from my childhood, our small town of 300 all of a sudden had two teenage boys die from leukemia, and that was a 'cluster' that had to be caused by something in the environment, right? Except for the previous 50 or so years and for the decades since then there have been no other such deaths. It's random, folks.)

Anyway, the 7 day MA for new deaths seems to be flattening and we'll know more about that later next week. The CFR 7 day MA has declining since the middle of April and is now just above 3.5%, which would make the Infection Fatality rate something like (assuming we really know how many infections we have had) 0.25%. In other words, knowing nothing else, if you get infected your chances of survival is 99.75%. It is dangerous, of course, but not much more so, if any, than seasonal flu. The data totally tells us that the danger is highest when you have 2 or more of the worst comorbidities: COPD, high BP, diabetes, BMI >30, heart/circulation problems, and asthma. Of course, the older you are the more likely you are to have two or more of those.

New cases are way up (65+K/day MA) but CFR is down and 7 day MA new deaths seems flat to down. New tests 7 day MA above 700K/day for over a week. New cases up in some of those (essentially island) countries that we're are supposed to somehow make our policies 'work' the way theirs seem to. Many countries opening their schools. Interesting times.

It evidently has come to the point where COVID can be used to cover any mandate or diktat the governor or mayor or health official feels like promulgating. “You can't do that or you'll be severely punished” combined with “You must do this or you will be severely punished” seems to me a bit over the top. But in MI that's the way it is. Wear a mask or get fined $500 but not enforced by cops but by businesses (maybe) and snitches and Karens (much more likely).

I'll close with some anecdotal stuff. There is a local 'newspaper' (3 times a week I think) that 'covers local news in several Detroit suburbs. Their last issue had an article where a couple of their writers (not sure I should call them reporters) went out looking and found only about half of the public wearing a mask. I'd bet you'd get a higher % just by asking politely instead of trying to force behavior, but maybe that's just me. The article also said that local businesses were very hesitant to try to enforce the rule because no matter how they did it, people on both sides of the issue got angry. Then remember that we have at least 2 dead in MI after mask-wearing arguments.

Then I had my cardiology appointment this past week. My doc is from India and he always wants to talk some politics. Anyway he saw my ill-fitting mask (his office calls ahead and requests you wear a mask) with my long beard and my hearing aids, and he said “You realize that mask is useless that way.” And I said, “Yes, but a 95 mask wouldn't fit or work any better.” Then he said, “They really hardly work at all and practically no non-medical personnel wear them properly anyway.” So I said, “What's the point then?” And he said, “It makes some people feel better I guess.”

I'm waiting to see if the latest data shows still more lessening of the epidemic and if “the authorities” pay any attention to it if it does.