COVID in Texas in three charts.

This is the Texas rate of tests being given, per capita. Note that the line has been flat for the last month, and is barely double the rate we had in mid April, while many other states have increased 5x or 10x.

This suggests two things - we're not making tests available to everyone as soon as symptoms appear, and we're sure as hell not testing contacts of known cases.

Look at the states that are getting a handle on this. They're testing at 5x our rate, and they have fewer cases, too...making our testing shortage a real problem.

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This is the positive result rate among tests given. As test quantities are up nationally and cases in many states are flat to down, almost every state as shown a declining rate here.

Two weeks ago, Texas was roughly average. Now we're very near the top.

A positive rate of 1% suggests a contained epidemic with excellent tracing. 3% usually means you're getting a grip. 5% usually means you probably have enough tests for on-demand testing. Above 5% means you are missing a lot of your cases.

Texas has risen from just above 4% - almost getting a grip - to 7 or 8% in just over 2 weeks. That means any rise we think we're seeing in case counts actually understates the growth pretty badly.

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And here's our known case count, it has nearly doubled in the last two and a half weeks. But because we're now missing a much higher rate, it's a good bet that the real rate has tripled.

And this chart lags infections by a week or two, so whatever trend was underway has actually gone much farther.

60 cases/day per 100k is about 1/6 the rate New York State had when they were in crisis. Even assuming we've risen to 100 now, we're not yet at a crisis level, but the trend is looking REALLY BAD.

Hospitalizations should lag behind this line by a week or so. Deaths by about 2 weeks, which is why they're still flat.

If I were governor, I would do this today:

• Statewide indoor public mask order, $100 fine for both the violator and the merchant if any. If you don't have a medical exemption, wear a mask.

• Secure and start distributing paper surgical masks in large quantities. Cloth masks probably help, especially ones with filter inserts rather than bandanas, but paper masks are cheap and likely work better.

• Back to shelter in place and closing non-essential indoor retail.

• Hire the extra 5,000 contact tracers immediately, plan on 10k more if this trend continues.

If it's a false alarm, we can turn it off in 2 weeks. If it's not...a month from now is going to be a mess. Meanwhile, the average Texan on the street is thinking this is mostly behind us, and wondering if we'll have a "second wave" in the fall.