Lower than predicted death tolls evidence of social distancing working?

I keep seeing folks complaining about how the "death toll isn't what was predicted."

Isn't that a good thing? Doesn't that mean that some of our social distancing efforts WORKED?

Here's what too many people fail to understand, I think:

1. Somewhere between 4 and 6 months ago, a "novel" (new) virus appeared on the human scene. No history with it, save what was happening contemporaneously to recognizing it.

2. Testing was virtually non-existent early on, hence, data was limited.

3. Models were developed with the data available at the time. Models changed as new data was fed into the system. Models are just educated guesses based on past experience, knowledge of populations, and existent data. Models get better with time, experience, and more data points.

4. I'm thrilled that our models are looking better, and that the social distancing that much of the country enacted seems to have avoided New York (or Italy, or China) type events in most of the country.

5. Once this wave passes, the statisticians and epidemiologists will be crunching the numbers. Better testing will be developed and available. Better knowledge about treatment options for those who get very ill will be available (and will have some scientific analysis and testing to back them up).

6. If (more likely WHEN) we get another wave of COVID-19, we'll be in a position to handle it very differently--more like we handle seasonal influenza. We may see limited regional warnings again. We may all be advised at certain times to wear masks if we're going to be out in public at certain locations.

7. My opinion--based on little more than believing that as we understand more about this virus, we'll know how to manage its effects on society better--is that we won't see the same kind of virtual shutdown of society that we've seen the last month or so, again. But we will all need to be aware and responsible for seeing to it that where we go doesn't have the kind of "hot spot" issue that seems to beg for more strict measures.

Personal Responsibility is better than the Heavy Hand of Government--so behave accordingly!

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