Conspiracies are low probability events because the probability that a conspiracy is exposed by a defecting conspirator increases with the number of conspirators.

Conspiracy theories get traction because they explain other low probability events.

Take 9-11 for example. How many conspirators are needed to plant explosives in three buildings? Multiply this probability by the low probability that a conspiracy won't be exposed later by a defector. Each multiplication reduces the likelihood for a conspiracy theory to hold water.

For those who aren't predisposed to conspiracy theories, my mathematical approach to dismantling the conspiracy theory should be applauded.

Compare these calculations to the probability that the strongest military in history would be unable to prevent a jet airliner from running into its headquarters. Multiply this low probability by the low probability of three buildings collapsing all on the same day, in a way unobserved for any similarly constructed buildings before or since.

Even to suggest that we quantify these probabilities likely makes me a "conspiracy theorist" because the act of contemplating probabilities necessitates the giving of a sliver of credibility to anything but the official story.