中美贸易战,一句永远是朋友,这戏可以谢幕了……

in #cn7 years ago

下午还跟朋友聊起贸易战来着,结果这中国立刻就怂了,要敞开贸易壁垒了,就是不知道是否这是缓兵之计。

其实如果不敞开呢,这贸易顺差实际上是中国依赖美国市场的消费的,美国关税一收,中国就卖不过去,产能过剩,属于马上就崩的结局,硬着陆。所以虽然舆论新闻造势,本质上,是中国更怕的。

现在选择敞开国门,那么逐渐的,中国很多低劣产品将失去竞争力,虽然中国一直在提倡高兴产业,但是这个过度还没完成,现在是要提早到来了。一方面国外优质品以低税进入,很多小厂会关闭,另一方面,随着知识产权进一步落实,很多靠着抄袭获利的大厂,可能面临着专利费和赔偿等成本的提升,逐步失去价格的竞争力,慢慢落地。全局来看,中国那套不计成本,不计浪费,风口浪尖胡乱投的盈利方式要被改革了。这个选择算是软着陆吧,信贷会出现很多坏账,整个体系会还很多欠下的账。

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