Cindicator - My Push to Become a "Super Forecaster" Day 8 March 4th, 2019

It only makes sense after my greatest success in this challenge, to have my greatest loss in it.

There are a lot of instances where answering analytical questions that were designed around specific binary events can lead to strings of missed forecasts. Last nights dip for me was one of those events. I will have to do some soul searching to regain my percentages and rethink my forecasts if I am to win my Rising Star challenge and become a super forecaster.

Cindicator is a prediction platform that rewards effective forecasters with cash. This series is my story about becoming a super-forecaster through a challenge I entered called the Rising Star Challenge.

I just had the largest fall of this month. It is not fun and It does lower my chances of success.

Here are today's infographics. Not that I am ecstatic to share them. But this is a quest and I can deal with a setback:

And here is today's statistic screencap:

Ouch!

I saw the writing on the wall as soon as some assets had fallen below my predicion from some binary questions about "will this asset go up x% before it falls y%". It just happened that the setup for this dip was highly involved in the questions over the last week and I chose the bull outcome. That sealed my fall back to #665 ( Dancing with the devil)

It happens. I spent too much time worrying about answering every question possible to reach the 150 I need by the 17th, The more you answer, the more you can answer wrong, and that really puts a chilling effect on monthly statistics early.

I am not invincible. I am sure that episodes like this happen to a great many analysts all of the time which makes the collective intelligence of Cindicator's machine learning all the more attractive. Still, I have to improve and I am working hard at that. This score will not stand I will have to work 2x as hard to recover.

I have to admit that it rattled me a little because I am putting myself out there by writing this blog. Sure its worthy of a laugh because I miffed it so hard. I can take criticism and defeat. I always feel a renewed commitment in a loss like this so I will see this through. Even if I miss my target this month every day is a new day and success is about failure and improvement.

Thank you for visiting and following along in my experience as I compete to become a super forecaster within the Cindicator platform. I am going to take some extra time and try to submit forecasts in a calculative way that brings me back within my target.

Hope that everyone is having a nice day out there.