US AM Digest: CAD underperformance after slowing inflation

in #business7 years ago

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Overview of the US market via IG: DJIA (unch), Nasdaq 100 -0.4%, S & P 500 -0.1%

Major headlines

Canadian inflation slows to 2.2% from Expected 2.3%
Five Stars and League Agree on Government Program
China denies reporting reduction in $ 200 billion trade surplus
USD: The greenback continues to strengthen, after taking another leg this morning, but because of the slide of the euro, which continues to weigh on the uncertainty of Italian politics. However, bulls in the USD should be cautious that the sharp rise in the greenback could end in exhaustion, as every decline is new purchases in US dollars. Case remains the same as the December highs at 94.22 the notable short-term goal.

CAD: The latest Canadian inflation data slowed slightly, edging down 0.1 percentage point to 2.2%, which was below expectations of 2.3%. As such, the USDCAD has reached cool session highs that are now looking to make a break above 1.29, potentially reaching the week's high of 1.2924. Since inflation is a target of 2%, the result is that the Bank of Canada is demanding higher rates. As a result, the probabilities of a rate hike at the end of the month went from 43% to 37%. NAFTA continues to present itself as the main unknown for the Canadian dollar outlook, due to the uncertainty surrounding when an agreement can be reached.

EUR: The League and the 5-star party have agreed on a government agreement, which has continued to be Italian assets with BTP yields at the highest since November 2017 after rising more than 7bps. One of the problems with the plan agreed by the populist parties is that it promises a big spending spree that will put Italy in collision with the EU. With the EURUSD returning in mid-1.17 having dropped the 1.18 handle, a close below 1.1790 could see the downtrend remain intact.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Friday, May 18, 2018 - North American News Releases
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USDCAD: Data from retail traders show that 42.8% of traders are net with a short / long ratio of 1.34 to 1. The net number of traders is 3.4% higher than yesterday and 1.9% higher than last week, while the net number of traders is 5.9% lower than yesterday and 15.5% lower than last week.

We usually have a cross-sight, and the traders are net-short. USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less

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