If BTC continues to adjust at 34,000-35,000 US dollars, it will help to consume the bad news in the early period

On July 4th, BTC once again stood at $35,000, giving the entire cryptocurrency market a good start. If BTC continues to float in this range, it can continue to digest the bad news of the previous two months in order to give The late rise lays the foundation. Of course, all this requires the cooperation of policies. If news that is unfavorable to BTC continues to flow out of the market, then the rise of BTC will be indefinite. Of course, in addition to the policy impact, the attitude of the BTC Whale account is also very important, and their every move will directly affect the direction of BTC.

There are data showing that about 10% of BTC addresses are in control of nearly 90% of BTC, which shows how much influence these addresses have on BTC. Although these addresses include some institutional accounts, such as BTC trust institutions such as Grayscale, they are also sufficient to prove the existence of a pseudo-center in BTC. Many people thought that Musk's attitude toward BTC has affected the direction of BTC. And believe that BTC's large fluctuations in the past six months are mainly related to whether Tesla supports BTC payments.

As one of the Internet celebrities and technology giants, Musk's words and deeds can indeed have some impact on BTC. But Musk's influence on BTC is far less than that of whale accounts such as Grayscale. They are one of the key factors affecting BTC's direction. Grayscale BTC Trust, established in 2013, is currently the world's largest digital asset fund management company, holding multiple cryptocurrencies such as BTC, Ethereum and ADA in its portfolio.

Holding 650,000 BTCs in gray scale, it is both long and possibly the biggest short

Grayscale BTC Trust currently holds approximately 650,000 BTCs, which is more than 3% of the total number of BTCs. This data can be said to be quite terrible. Because whale addresses like Grayscale BTC Trust have a large amount of BTC, they are actually the main source of BTC hype. They have become the largest bulls in BTC, which is one of the main drivers of BTC's rise. By the same token, they are not only the biggest longs in BTC, but they may also become the biggest shorts in BTC at any time.

BTC trust institutions like Grayscale have many similarities with the well-known fund management companies, or more like an investment strategy for high-end customers. This is nothing more than Grayscale BTC Trust, which only targets cryptocurrencies such as BTC, Ethereum and ADA. But whether it is a BTC investment strategy such as funds, BTC trusts, and ETFs, the purpose is to use BTC and other cryptocurrencies to make money for customers, not to protect the stability of BTC.

Although Grayscale will lift the ban on 41,800 BTCs, it will not smash its own jobs

Grayscale BTC Trust will unlock approximately 41,800 BTCs in late July, and a maximum of 16,200 BTCs will be unlocked in a single day on the 18th. The reason is that some funds have reached the 6-month lock-up period. I read some analysis data on the market, and some people think that the gray rules are special, so users cannot directly sell BTC. In fact, these are all secondary. The main thing is to look at the gray attitude and the changes in BTC's policy in the market. I remember that someone has counted Gray's comprehensive holding costs, and the average value of Gray's BTC does not exceed $10,000, which means that the Grayscale BTC Trust has no holding pressure at this stage.

Large investment institutions like Grayscale are not looking at the profits brought about by the short-term rise and fall of BTC, and the short-term rise and fall of the profits are mainly for customers. Therefore, Grayscale BTC Trust is actually the same as trading institutions. The most hoped is that cryptocurrencies such as BTC will continue to exist, and service fees are their main source of income. That is to say, if there is no systemic risk in the market, Grayscale BTC Trust cannot smash its own jobs, so it is impossible to sell BTC.

For real capital giants like Grayscale, their investment vision is not comparable to ours, and they don't care about the gains and losses of a city or a place. Just like the value investment philosophy of Warren Buffett, when its fund companies invested in BYD, they did not buy or sell stocks because of price changes. Buffett is optimistic about BYD's production value, not the value of its stock speculation. This is the difference between value investment and speculative investment. In fact, Grayscale BTC Trust's investment in BTC and other cryptocurrencies is also a value investment, but the value it sees is service fees.

This can also be said to be some contradictions between value investment and speculative investment. Different positions lead to different values, but the ultimate goal is the same. Therefore, BTC investors do not have to worry about Grayscale's attitude towards BTC in the short term, but mainly pay attention to the impact of policies. However, I still do not recommend ordinary investors to invest in BTC, because our information access channels and funding capabilities are seriously insufficient, and we lack risk prevention and resistance capabilities.

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