@ew-and-patterns I think it's a possibility - like hell, anything is possible in this market. If we've seen 2000% increase in Bitcoin since the start of the year, why not see a 60-70% retrace?

However, you're looking strictly from a technical analysis stand-point, with a strategy that I don't fully understand even.

If we are to think about the fundamental aspects, let's think about what happened after thanksgiving. Everyone sat down with family and friends and talked about Bitcoin, and it rallied close to $20K, then corrected as the hype got consumed. But I am expecting another wave of hype after Christmas, when everyone will be well rested, ready to take on new challenges especially after the new year, and maybe not miss the boat on Bitcoin this year around. It's a huge mental milestone.

In other words I expect Bitcoin to rally soon, probably to an ATH in early to mid January, and then go down in February after all the hype is consumed yet again, and taxes start to be paid.

Going forward, I expect a couple of months of consolidation, probably still around $16 - 18K with more upwards movement going into spring/summer just like we saw this year.