트레이딩노트 02.01
비트코인 가격이 지지선을 지키면서 보합으로 수렴되고 있습니다. 금일은 조금씩 상승하려는 추이를 보이고 있는데 미국의 비트코인 규제에 관한 이슈를 지켜보면서 접근해야 할 것으로 보입니다.
이더리움의 경우 지난 최고점에서 낙폭을 줄이면서 $1000 이하의 시세를 주지 않으려는 모습입니다. 더불어 0.1 비트코인을 넘어 가치가 지속적으로 상승하고 있는 추세입니다. 하락시마다 조금씩 매수해도 좋을 시점으로 보입니다.
리플의 경우 삼각 수렴의 끝점에 도달하고 있으며 1달러 대를 강하게 지지할 것으로 보입니다. 상용화 가능성을 염두에두고 매수를 하실 경우 Q4 리포트와 추후 Q1를 확인하며 진입하시기 바랍니다.
We pointed at $10800 yesterday as the price level that Bitcoin bears need to drill to accelerate the falls. BTC went below it, triggering a fall of nearly $1000 during the American session. There were some panic moments when bulls feared heavy losses, but at the end, it was just a scare. The move was technically healthy: adding volatility, confirming important supports and giving room for the change of direction in the moving averages.
BTC/USD
MACD is the indicator that has benefitted the most from yesterday's price action. It has now enough room to face an upward cross in the best conditions. The current pattern backs up a possible change of trend in the upcoming days.
Directional Movement Index shows mild divergence after yesterday's BTC price action. Buyers went up while sellers retreated. There is still some way to go until the equilibrium level, and that backs up a lateral but bullish scenario that should favor new position taking.
Ripple, in a similar situation then Bitcoin, but a few steps ahead
XRP/USD 4H chart
XRP/USD has broken out of the triangle that was containing it and continues with a lateral but positive move. In the last few weeks, Ripple has been leading the Crypto board, stepping ahead of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. Ripple price action is definitely something to follow as a point of reference for the rest of cryptos.
MACD shows a slightly divergent profile. Its current position backs potential bullish action.
Directional Movement Index indicates few differences between buyers and sellers amount. Next hours might see a cross that would put buyers in an advantage situation.
ETH/USD 4H chart
ETH/USD
In the Ethereum chart, MACD has a very different profile than other Cryptos. ETH is in a bullish trend and it's probable that it will now have to correct a bit after big bullish strides. The indicator shows a certain separation between the average and the signal, around the 0 level. We might expect retracements in the upcoming sessions.
Directional Movement Index is following perfectly the price, with sellers at high levels and buyers beginning to show up at the trendline area. Those buys might be premature considering the possible cycle change in relation to Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC 4H chart
ETH/BTC
MACD is showing exhaustion in this chart, with divergence in the last bullish ride. Any upward move will increase the divergence and, therefore, the possibilities of Bitcoin takes the advantage again.
Directional Movement Index shows meaningful buying levels, with sellers in a clear disadvantage despite being slightly divergent. It is not clear yet when that might happen, but Ethereum's advantage over Bitcoin is about to get to its end.
Conclusion
It is a good moment to think about taking long positions in Bitcoin and Ripple, always taking into account the big risks that involve an investment in such volatile and sensible assets. Any wrong updates on regulation or other industry matters and you might get caught in the wrong turn. That said, several countries have toughened their legislation on Cryptocurrencies during the last few days, but less has been said about the meaningful words of an important Swiss official, who showed intentions of the alpine country of implementing the Blockchain technology as a structural change.