Fund managers are ready to bet $1 million on the failure of the s2f model for bitcoin

Eric wall, investment Director of the cryptocurrency hedge Fund Arcane Assets, is ready to bet a million dollars that the bitcoin price forecast according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model will not come true until 2025. This model assumes that by 2022, the cryptocurrency should be worth $288,000.

An analyst at PlanB, who adapted the S2F model used in commodity markets to bitcoin, wrote on November 11 that he has no doubt that it is correct and the cryptocurrency will reach the range by December 2021 $100 000 – 288 000.

"There is no doubt? - wall commented – - I Bet $1,000,000 that the model will be broken in less than 5 years. This is not a joke. Under " violated” I mean not reaching even 50% of its target range."

BlockTower Capital investment Director Ari Paul said that he is ready to offer a similar bet, but on more favorable terms. "Bet a dollar to win three (with up to six zeros added)," Paul wrote – " I Can't say about Eric's logic, but for me the reason to offer this bet, without evaluating the accuracy of the model at all, is simple arbitration. To buy BTC, to open a short position on S2F 3 to 1. It's impossible to lose."

In other words, if the bet is played, the organizers of the bet will receive $1 million, and if bitcoin continues to move in accordance with S2F, their cryptocurrency assets will grow many times and pay for the bet. Paul, however, expressed confidence that no one would agree to wall's offer, even if the bid was reduced to $100,000.

"I'm not going to argue against the loss in this case," wrote the wall.