Analysis on the future of the blockchain industry based on comparison to the dot-com bubble era
I am a PHD candidate and studied data science and project management.
I’ve set a break to my studies and joined the crypto market last June, 2017.
Since than I’ve been trading, investing in ICOs, incubating and marketing ICOs.
I’ve been collecting valuable information and doing investigations on the blockchain industry for some time and starting from today, I decided to start sharing my knowledge and ideas.
I’ve been comparing various indexes, charts and historical behavior to forecast the next step in the blockchain industry, more meaningfully, the market size (the bitcoin price). Today, my post deals mainly with my personal opinion on the next step of the blockchain industry based on the comparison to an historical event called the dot-com bubble.
On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite index hit an all-time high of 5132.50 where the decline from that peak signaled the start of the dot-com bubble burst. [https://www.investors.com/news/technology/click/15-years-after-dot-com-crash-tale-of-stock-survivors/]
Few tech companies survived from the crash:
Priceline, Amazon, Adobe Systems, ASML, Intuit, IBM, Arm, Ebay, Oracle, SanDisk, Yahoo, Google, Apple, etc.
Thinking about the companies listed above, I’ve come to a conclusion that we will face similar situation for the blockchain industry too. This means that the blockchain is also a big bubble for now and only few companies will survive and will bring profit to normal investors like me and you.
Starting from the year 2011, Apple Inc. listed rank number one in market size. Just once, until present, in the second quarter of the year 2013, Exxon Mobil was listed rank number one and Apple Inc. rank number two.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2000%E2%80%932010]
There is no doubt that BTC is the Apple of the crypto market. So what about the other companies such as Priceline, Amazon, etc.? Some of them can be compared to other major coins such as ETH, XRP, DASH, BCH, EOS, etc. I am 90% sure that ETH, XRP and DASH will survive. ETH is a platform that most ICO tokens are its base. The fall of ETH prices made these ICOs suffer from lack of budget for the past months as most of them were funded through ETH and didn’t cash out at high points.
Unlike other coins, XRP doesn’t use block chain but uses distributed consensus ledger using a network of validating servers. XRP is not a currency or a method of payment. The primary use case of XRP is the transfer of other currencies (not only limited to fiat but also oil and gold). XRP is an efficient solution for the traditional system that often takes long time for such actions to be conducted. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/02/28/what-is-the-difference-between-bitcoin-and-ripple/#23ee22fb6611)
DASH is a coin that I’ve been following for long. I am a big fan of DASH. It is currently being used for payments in 8 countries including the U.S, Canada, Germany and United Kingdom in more than 2,000 places in total.
So, comparing with the companies listed in Nasdaq, I would say it would be much safer to invest a portion of your stack in BTC, ETH and XRP in “long-terms”. Investing 100% is always a huge risk. No one can guarantee whether the market will go up or down. This is why investing more than 50% is by itself a huge risk. If you want to gamble to go a casino. (https://bitcasino.io/)
Vitalic recently said on public that there will be no such a thing as 1000x growth anymore, and I believe the same too.
So no chances for “short-term investment”? Of course there are. The recent boom of exchange tokens such as Fcoin, CoinZest, Cashierest gave huge opportunity to short-term investments. Similar exchange tokens would appear and will not last for long unless a huge amount of new traders will join the market.
So what or who will be the next game changer?
There are three things that I am focusing on now days and they are:
Security Tokens
Reverse ICO
Miners profit
I will deal with these topics in my next posts.
Let’s share! Feel free to contact me through https://www.linkedin.com/in/yongho-ko-096b0479/ or Twitter: @Yong57683152.