Investor Survey : Where The U.S Dollar Is Heading ? What is the position of US stocks ?

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was boosted by the FOMC meeting, you think where the US dollar and stocks are headed? Do you bother to suggest how many times you raise interest?
James Bizerno
I have a positive outlook for the US stock market at the moment, although I think it will be performing progressively better in the near future. But I'm looking at one of the obstacles to the S & P 500, and whether he can climb to the heights he reached last month. A key figure is the index's benchmark closing price on January 26, when it dropped slightly to 2873. If the market is able to outperform that peak, then there will be a chance for better trading in the foreseeable future. Above all, as long as there is moderate optimism about the direction of the US economy, this will add to the bullish sentiment in the market. What supports this sentiment is what we have seen in the last period of a rising trend accompanied by a low volatility, and continues to feel, although the trend and volatility may have become a past.

For the dollar index, questions remain about the end of the downtrend the dollar index has taken most of the time over the past year. The benchmark has strengthened over the past few weeks, standing within the 88-90 range. We need to see the dollar index rise above 90 on a sustainable basis before bulls announce their clear signs of the dollar.

It is likely that the Fed will raise interest rates (ie moving the dollar above the 90 level). After the publication of the proceedings of the meeting is expected to be raised next month.

Boris Sclossberg
It is clear that the Fed is seeking to raise the interest rate four times this year, and this is generated after the publication of the proceedings of the Open Market Committee meeting, but perhaps forced some changes and forces to be derailed. Interest rate hikes scare the stock market, and the stock market is currently in a state of panic from its bond competition. In addition, the higher the bond, the lower the price-earnings ratio. Therefore, even if we see a strong performance in terms of profits, we find that the real price is declining, driven by the movement of price-earnings ratios to 15 rather than 20.

We find that the best context for this situation is to exceed GDP by 3.5% or better, in which case the momentum to raise the price-to-profit ratio will be commensurate with the growth of stocks. In my view, this context is unlikely, although it is hard to say for sure that we have not yet been aware of the motives that the tax reduction plan will create.

Overall, the most I see is likely to increase volatility rates a lot. What we saw in January is a preview of what will happen during the year.
Joseph Scheffer
There are two factors that point to the rise of the low dollar, both of which are about welcoming capital inflows. The first factor comes from welcoming capital: "All your money is safe here, you can not confiscate it, as long as you get it legally." On the other hand, we see interest rates rising in the US while they are fixed in other countries: Higher than competitors. "

Will stocks follow the dollar? In my mind we will see a recovery from the current correction, after a short period of support and pouring of funds. But does this mean that we will return to the race again? I do not think this, because expectations are high on high profit-taking. The higher the expectations, the greater the probability of stumbling and falling from the simplest obstacles. At some point, I expect a huge correction, in the opinion will be by spring or summer this year. The interest rate will be raised in the coming weeks.

The Fed says it will raise rates only three times in 2018. For my part, I think this is likely. Due to the Federal Reserve's policy of not buying new Treasuries, while the bonds in their portfolio are now aging, making it harder for them to raise interest rates more than 3 times.

While most investors wonder how many times the interest rate is raised, the real question is how many bonds individuals and companies need to buy to make up for billions of dollars in Treasuries not bought by the Fed.