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RE: How Global Settlements work
Your profit from auction is made by taking part of the settlement fund. For instance, you are bidding 100 BTS, and if success, you'll have a margin position with 175 BTS as a collateral. You got these 75 BTS as a bonus.
Apart from this, you are taking risk of further BTS price drop and be margin called loosing both your own 100 BTS and 75 "profit" BTS.
It seems like the system already has 100% collateral (at GS price). So when 75% more is collected, then it is revived - assuming the same price. So when you bid 75 BTS, you get a net position of 75 BTS: 175 BTS in collateral and -100 BTS worth of MPA. That's exactly what you paid. Net zero (if indirect effects are discarded). So the only way to profit is to participate and wait for the price to rise.
But now price is < GS price and thus 75% of 1 bitUSD cost you more in BTS.. but same in $.
Could it be that it works as follows:
If that's how it works, then assuming there's 1 000 000 bitUSD shorts and 20 000 000 BTS debt (at $0.05 / BTS), and 175% MCR, then the revival would happen when there's either 35 000 000 BTS in collateral, BTS goes to $0.0875, or something in between. Would the following also be true: I bid 1BTS in collateral, and no-one else bids anything, then BTS goes up to $0.0875. I get the debt of $1M and collateral position with 20M BTS.
Anticipating a revival, that would be a pretty interesting opportunity.
In the auction, those that have provided higher collateral ratio have priority over those with less collateral providing in bids
So they aren't distributed in proportion to funds bidded? Can the result be that I commit funds but don't receive the short position?
Yes that is a possibility. In that case, your collateral is refunded.