BTS Analysis July 4-9, 2018
Over the last year, I have been introduced to Elliott Wave Theory and have learned to use it in trading cryptos. More recently, I have looked into the more specific "Fibonacci Pinball" method described by Avi Gilburt's group. I have never subscribed to any of their services, but they have an Education section of their website, which includes an introduction to their Fibonacci Pinball method as well as a more detailed presentation on the topic.
I have decided to practice their method and use this blog to document my analysis for my own purposes.
I am not a financial advisor. Do not consider this to be financial advice. I am posting it here for my own practice and future review only.
So a few days ago, I was looking at BTS. The 4h chart showed it could be starting wave i of (iii). BTS had been rejected by long term resistance, and declined in a channel, breaking long term support. However, it had broken through three successive resistances while putting in wave circled 3 of i:
The Fibonacci Pinball method suggests that the ideal time to enter a trade is after waves 1 and 2 have completed, because it allows you to project the subsequent subwaves of 3, followed by 4 and 5. This is what I did July 4:
By July 9th, BTS had hit my circled wave 3 and 4 targets almost perfectly. Although it has now likely completed circled wave 5, without reaching my target on this tradingview calculated USD chart, I was able to capture that level (high of 0.1939) on the BTS dex. (Targets are highlighted on the right of the image).
So where does BTS go next? Well, the 50% retracement of the whole wave i coincides very nicely with long term support, so that is my ideal target at 0.1513, but anywhere in the 0.142-0.16 range will do.
I hope this has entertained, and please comment below. I plan on presenting similar analyses as time permits!
Very detailed, thanks for the update!!
Thanks! I find the BTS dex gets bigger swings on the lows and the highs. Overnight I already hit on buys as low as about 0.152.
Looking at it again, another prime buy level could be where the 78.6% retrace hits the descending top of channel line around 0.129.
Yeah I do all my trading on the DEX.
It looks like your prediction is accurate so far about the correction. What gives you the idea that it will drop to $0.129?
A few reasons (see 30 minute chart below for some illustrations). First, the correction should occur in three waves, abc. However this first decline looks pretty clearly like 5 waves, which implies it is just wave A of a 5-3-5 ABC correction. I expect that wave B should now retrace 50-61.8% of this decline, somewhere in the green rectangle.
Second, 0.129 represents the 0.786 retrace which is a good possibility IF it drops through the 0.618 at 0.142. The thing I like about 0.129 is that it also is approximately at the top of the descending channel from the decline from $0.40 or so, so it is another support level.
Third, IF B goes to $0.175, then a drop to 0.129 would be in keeping with the A=C “rule of thumb”.
Finally, I have t a tendency to think a correction is over before it really is, and I am trying to learn from that.
These are all just possibilities though, we’ll have to see.
Dang nice man, seems like pretty good TA work, I will have to look more into the fib pinball, I’ve never even really heard of it until now.
Let me ask you this, what do you see BTS high going to this year? You think we can reach the ATH again this year, or maybe more, or not even close?
Fib pinball I think is terminology only used by that group of analysts...so not surprising if you haven’t heard it.
Basically the theory is that after waves 1 and 2 of an impulse are placed, price should bounce around off of specific Fibonacci extensions relative to the first wave. According to their method, if it does not hit their minimums then maybe the count is wrong. It also gives early warning if a count will break down. Finally, it shows how to adjust your targets as price evolves. The presentation link in my post gives a good step by step...
I have literally only been trying the pinball method for a few weeks so far, after practicing more generally with EW theory.
I am curious to see whether the target levels stay consistent with cryptos compared to say stocks, since cryptos are so volatile.
BTS: I can’t really speak to timing, that’s beyond me. However if we consider the December/January high to be a higher order wave 1, then Fib Pinball method projects wave 5 of the same order to complete at least in the range of $1.80-$2. There is a long way to go for that though, and the target can be adjusted as price evolves. Based on the chart and the long term resistance line at the top, that price range coincides with the first few months of next year, but that is speculative. This count stays valid as long as price stays above $0.001 ( that is price could even break the March low and that would just mean we haven’t completed the higher order wave 2 yet).
At the end of the day, I think it is going a lot higher just not sure when. If the current bull count remains valid (above $0.112) then I think roughly $0.28-0.32 should not be too far off.