Breakdown of the Peerplays share drop to the BitShares Community

Good Day Steemers.For some BitShares holders, it is share drop day :D

The Peerplays Project announcement the details of the planned share drop to the BitShares Community.

Peerplays Sharedrop ANN

Facts:

• 5% of 1.000.000 Peerplays (50.000) are share dropped to BitShares holders
• official known exchange accounts are excluded from the share drop
• If you want to get Peerplays from the share drop you need to hold them in your "own" BitShares wallet (You need to hold the private keys!)

What should you do as a BitShares Investor?

As expected the price for BitShares rose after the ANN of Peerplays. If you look into the available data, it was around 770 Satoshis and rose in the peak to 950 Satoshi and is now around 865 Satoshi. For the share drop you need to hold BitShares in your private wallet between September 1 and September 16. If you are familiar with the ARDOR sharedrop to the NXT Community it is kind of similar. Could we expect same behavior?

NXT rose 4-5 times after the ANN of the ARDOR share drop and is still around this higher prices. Maybe BitShares will see more price rises in the future, but i think the sharedrop is already priced in and we will see later why.

Official known Exchange accounts are excluded

Peerplays stated in their Post that all known Exchange accounts are excluded from the share drop.

Please be advised: Peerplays will not share drop onto any publically known exchange or 3rd party escrow account addresses. To guarantee that you receive your entire share drop, you must hold BTS in your BitShares wallet ( ie. “Freedom Ledger” or “Open Ledger”) during the entire date range specified.

I checked BitsharesRiches and put some numbers together what this means.

In the Picture above you find the known exchange accounts. They are holding 944.399.078 BitShares. If you subtract from the available share supply of 2.570.140.000 you get 1.625.740.922 BitShares who will get share dropped.

Would this ratio stay the same this would mean that you get

1 Peerplays for 32.514 BitShares

At the moment 32.514 BitShares is worth 0.28 Bitcoin or 162,96 USD (Bitcoin Price 582 USD /Coinmarketcap).

1 Peerplays is worth 12.00 USD (Source: Cryptofresh

If you do the math this means a dividend to Bitshares holders of -----------
7.36% ------------
(12/162,96 = 0.07436)

Thought experiment

If the prices stays the same it would be good to sell your BitShares and wait for the drop after the September 17. This assumes, that after the snapshot the price will erode again to the original 770 Satoshi and if you sell for around 860 Satoshi you get a profit of 770/860 = 10.5%.

As well some people will try to sell this gifted Peerplays to them, so this could lead to a falling Peerplays price. After all the available share base will increase 25% with this share drop (200.000 shares + 50.000). If this will come all true, you can buy Peerplay and BitShares cheaper after the share drop and get more shares for the same amount of Bitcoins.

Be aware, this is just a thought experiment and you should think a little about it before you decide to follow this idea! I just made public available information available for interested people.

Keep steeming!