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RE: Mike Novogratz - "Impossible for Bitcoin not to get to $10k this year"
Mike Novogratz is in a spot praying that bitcoin doesn't go below $5K. He's got investors to worry about. If it goes below $3K, then he might be forced to sell out to satisfy all the investors he's got. That's most likely the reason why he's saying what he's saying.
I agree that long term bitcoin is extremely bullish, but short term, I'm 90% certain we will see below $5K before this bear market is over. Someone like Mike Novogratz or Tim Draper "rage quitting" and selling out would be a sign that the bear market is over.
I fully agree - anyone who uses the word "impossible" when talking about investments is either a con-man or a clown...
Isn't it equally "impossible" that Bitcoin wont go under 4k this year? - Hell if I had to bet on one impossibility I'd bet on that one. But I already did that last December when I sold all mine at 17k...
Bitcoin is probably a dead horse now
I think he knows that it isn't technically impossible. He is looking at everything being built behind the scenes, taking that into account with the big money he talks to wanting in, and
also charts bottoming out along with regulatory clarity, and sees a snap back rally as something very probable over the next 4 months. Though, anything is technically "possible."
Markets follow patterns which suggests that if it goes below $4975, the next support zone is somewhere just above $3K. It might even flash crash to somewhere around $1K, but if that happens it won't last long. Ethereum did this briefly in June 2017 on rumors of Vitalik's death and went all the way down to about 10 cents, but that condition lasted only for about a minute or two.
I'd never count Bitcoin out in the long term. I think we will see new ATH's by the last quarter of 2019. The gains coming in the 2020's will be historic. I think that technically we will be out of the bear market by the end of next winter (Feb / Mar 2019) but trading might be sideways next summer, but it is definitely going back up well above 20K, it's only a matter of time.
I have reason to believe that the next parabolic FOMO will start summer 2020 and won't peak fully until early 2021. By then, bitcoin prices could easily be above 100K.
Have you been following Novogratz much? His fund is predominately his own money. He delayed launching to investors due to the price running up too fast late last year. Also he has been very particular about calling tops and bottoms, he was right about the top and I would not be surprised if he is right about the bottom as well.
Tone Vays says something different. While he's more bearish than I prefer, he's a former wall st pro from Bear Stearns. He's said Novogratz and Draper may be willing to hodl their own funds, but their investors are a different story. They may be forced to sell their investor's holdings. Do you know precisely how much is own funds vs others money?
That I do not know. I don't know when or if he actually launched his hedge fund. It was originally funded with his own money only. When it came time to take money from investors, it was December of 2017 and Novogratz said he didn't feel right taking investments from others at the same time he was selling his personal holdings, so he delayed the launch. I am not sure how long he delayed it for though. He mentioned something about after bitcoin peaking it December it would be a good 8 months before it was worth buying again, pretty good call on his timing thus far.