Bitcoin is repeating a trend started in early 2014 - Why I think the next Bitcoin bull run won’t fully start until summer 2020
One of my favorite sources for watching bitcoin price analysis is Tone Vays. He’s been saying that in the near term (this fall) we should see a drop to about $4950. After that, further evaluation to see whether it can drop to the most bearish low of $1300 again. While the 2017 bubble was an order of magnitude above the 2013 bubble, there are some differences this time around that will likely shorten this bear market that we are currently in. However, I don’t share the view that we’ll see new all time highs in 2018. I think this is more likely to happen in 2019, but I expect next year to be mostly sideways with high volatility. Some will declare a bull market next year, but it will be nothing compared to what’s coming in the early 2020’s.
I wrote about my predictions in the summer of 2017 and I predicted that a reversal trend would begin to happen by Feb 2018. It actually started down about a month earlier but this is within the margin of error for the long range forecasting method I am using. I believe that the next significant bull run will start in summer 2020 and peak by Feb 2021.
After Feb 2021, I don’t feel as certain. I suspect a drop or at least a plateau for a while after that and much depends upon the state of the technology. Bitcoin in it’s current form isn’t useful as a medium of exchange. The same goes for most altcoins with perhaps the exception of Dan Larimer’s projects (EOS, Steem and Bitshares) which have solved the scaling issues (by sacrificing security and decentralization to some degree). At this point, it requires too much technical skill for the average person to adopt cryptocurrencies. Lack of merchant adoption and the difficulty in securing funds (becoming one's own banker) is a significant obstacle.
I remain bullish on Bitcoin and EOS long term. There is less certainty over the remaining altcoins. Some of them will make a comeback when bitcoin does when we are in an established bull market. Until then, I expect most of them to dump value for the next year. Part of the problem will be establishment players trying to force hodlers into a panic sell so that they can get in cheaper themselves. They got caught out of the market at the wrong time and will try to manipulate the market to rectify their earlier mistakes in foresight.
You might ask, what happens in 2020? The halving of the block reward has coincided with the end of the last bitcoin bear market of 2014 - 2016. Aside from this, it’s a matter of understanding that life’s patterns repeat which means that markets also have repetitive patterns. This bull / bear swing will repeat until crypto has taken over national fiat as a means of exchange. When this happens, one of them will replace the USD as the main “unit of account”. I think there’s a strong possibility this could happen in the early to mid 2020’s. @jeffberwick thinks the dollar collapse will happen a bit sooner. I think he’s basically right, but it will probably take a couple of years longer than he thought. I think he’s only wrong (slightly) on the timing.
Disclaimer: Don't misconstrue this as financial advice. Do your own research so that you can be responsible for your own trades.
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If the lightning network works out-I think it will-and get mass adoption-in the cryptosphere-many altcoins won't matter. I would say these coins probably will survive-don't quote!
Bitcoin for money and maybe Litecoin for filling Bitcoin LN wallets?
Honestly the only tech I am actually excited about for Bcash( use to call it bch but the new marketing stunt destroyed it for me) is Graphene. Graphene is a improved version of thin blocks. It does not lower the block size but instead create a way to distribute bigger blocks faster. This is a better version of compact blocks in theory. Not much is know about graphene but Core dev were planning on adding something similar:
https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/06/07/compact-blocks-faq/
But is BCH dev can pull graphane in what they said in theory it be better than compact. However graphene has huge security problems...
Compact blocks fix the security issue!
Only time will tell...
EOS: A blockchain hosting platfrom
Golem for selling pc
Monero bc of privacy
and probably more.
Alot of "coins" are just tokens in CMC. I don't really count most of them...
Some of them are really close to securities...
Nice considerations, absolutely agree there will be no new highs this year, still hope for another spike before 2020, reasons: 1) there are a lot disruptive projects in the making 2) institutional money is now flowing in, will they wait for 2020 for pushing?
No. They will get in and others will pile on. I think we will see new ATH's in 2019, but it will be nothing compared to the 2020's. In retrospect, 2019 will look like 2013 and the early 2020's an order of magnitude above 2017.
That's what i wanted to hear man! ;)
Seems like a realistic scenario, but I follow a different analysis.
I expect that in the near future there will be a financial collapse. These repeat every 7 years or so and we are already overdue. There are many ticking time-bombs in the world where it could start. This time I expect it will be starting in Europe when the Euro finally breaks.
Bitcoin was developed as an answer to the last financial crisis and this time around the technology is more or less ready. Once the next crisis hits bitcoin will rise in value dramatically.
I dont now when this will happen but I expect the latest reasonable date would be 2025 or 7 more years in the future without a major crash. But the problem is that we have no clue when this will be. And these crashes develop very fast. Therefore I think it is better to buy now and not try to optimise the maximum low for small gains at the risk of missing out on the main action.
Prices now are a bargain. Maybe it will go to 5000, maybe 2000, but what really matters is that you are already in crypto when the crash hits. Because if you are not onboarding then will be painful and with big losses.
I would emphasize "less" ready. LN still isn't ready for mainstream use. The devs have made LN deliberately difficult to set up while in the testing stages because they don't want non tech types losing their money. The scaling issue is still very much in play. The only tech I'm aware of that has solved this issue is @dan's projects (EOS, Steem, Bitshares) and maybe the Waves platform. In these projects, the question is whether they are decentralized enough, but they will have no trouble onboarding new users in a financial collapse. The other networks will suffer massive strain (especially ETH which is already at the limit). Check out blocktivity.info.
I completely agree. But i am quite optimistic that things could develope quite fast if there is enough pressure. Right now I think that Bitshares could be a winner. But if there is a global crash a lot of effort will go into making LN operational.
Very nice @zoidzoft. Bitcoin predictions have been a little more abundant these days. 2020 don’t sound bad.
Go EOS.
Everyone wants it now but this is the likely reality.
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