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RE: Today I will get a better sleep
They say that recent BTC price drops were due to Mt. Gox trustee selling huge amounts of BTC. And by "huge" I am referring to 200 000 BTC that were retrieved after the theft, which at the peak were worth 4 000 000 000 USD. They should be using received funds to reimburse those who lost money during the theft.
And who lost the money at Mt. Gox? Right, investors. I think they will return to the market at the right moment. Not sure which portion of retrieved BTC is already sold by this trustee, but when his accounts will start to dry out, it will be the best moment to enter BTC market, because no fundamentals of BTC has changed. In fact they are getting better each month.
Good point, but I think there are a lot of factors at play. I read that article too and wondered why they would even sell the BTC instead of simply returning it to the investors, but after reading your post here, I did the math. 200,000 X say 10k is still only 2 Billion USD and we've seen the total market cap go from somewhere around 840b USD down to 373b now. That's like a half trillion USD change. Looks like some big whales at play to me. All the best
As for why not return bitcoin instead of USD. I think there are many interested parties that want to get their hands on this money. Its common to count your losses in USD which were sustained at the moment of theft of your asset. All the surplus received from selling bitcoin at current prices will be absorbed by bankruptcy administrators and other intermediaries.
I agree with your point on the reasoning, but my thought stemmed from if I wanted my BTC back vs. USD (debt notes), I would imagine a lot of the others want their BTC back too. Of course, like you said, "All the surplus received from selling bitcoin at current prices will be absorbed by bankruptcy administrators and other intermediaries." That's really what it's all about. All the best
What if you had another type of asset, like bar of gold or ton of diesel, which was stolen. If you are reimbursed few years later, would you expect to be reimbursed at current prices of gold or diesel?
Sure. Then again the difference being that you can't really spend a bar of gold or ton of diesel. Of course, Bitcoin opened the door to a whole new asset class all-together.
It does not work like that. Lets say you put market sell order for 10 000 BTC, when bitcoin at that moment costs 10K USD. Market sell order will hit all highest buy orders untill all bitcoin is sold. After selling highest buy order will be somewhat lower. Multiply last order (highest remaining buy order) price with circulating bitcoin and you'll have your new market cap. Even though you have sold only 10K bitcoin which at that moment was worth 10K * 10K USD, after the selling market cap may be reduced much more than 10K * 10K.
Yeah, I understand the way it works, but was just making a point that there is a lot more at play here than just a few hundred thousand BTC being sold over a several month period. My point here is while I agree it certainly had some impact, we're probably talking a fraction of the total BTC sold in that period of time. In fact, I wouldn't at all be surprised if the "news" of the 200,000 BTC being sold had more of a FUD factor sell off than the actual selling of 200,000 BTC being sold, but who knows. It is a big market and there are so many things at play in the world these days.
Of course. It cant be all this alone, even though sudden releases of bitcoin also triggered bot selling which react to speed of price decrease, which in turn reinforced FUD / panic selling and so on.
True. The articles I read on that stated the 200,000 BTC being sold was over several months (Dec. '17 - when the article came out) and I don't recall it implied it was all sold yet or not. So who knows.