BTC Update - Friday March 30th - Will 6k hold?

I'll have to be honest, I didn't see us heading to 6k so soon, but I'm getting more bearish in the mid-term than bullish. I was very lucky last night that I caught the drop and made some BTC, and again this morning I woke up just as it pumped $200! That's not good trading, it was good timing haha.

Anyways, let's get to the TA.

Let's look at Elliott wave - we have 5 waves down, and wave 5 has hit the 1:1 extension, but I'm actually gonna call it a wave 3, and call a wave 4 and 5 coming soon. This brings us down to our target range.

You can see that the falling wedge pattern has had two touches as support, so I'm expecting another touch on that support line. If we bounce, happy fucking days. If we breach that line, and break below 5750, we have limited support until 5k.

I obviously don't want this happening, and I do see an impulse move up after we bounce at 6kish (double bottom is immenent).

Looking at confluence factors, the .786 region is right where I want it. A C wave hits .786 most of the time, and this would signify the BOTTOM of our corrective wave, which is very positive longer term.
It looks like if we reach the .786, even by a wick, we could bounce off support, creating a double confluence zone. I'm pretty confident on this, and will be making trades to suit my analysis/projections.

Peace.

-B