Bitcoin (BTC) Update - Not Out of The Woods just Yet - Technical Analysis February 4th
As you can see from my daily chart, we're contending with the .786 region. It seems to be holding as support well, but we need the daily candle to close above it to confirm it as support. Wicks poking through is cool IMO.
I've validating my wave counts, and it seems like we are yet to finish our final 5th impulsive wave down.
Check out the chart below so you can see what I mean. It is my opinion that we are still in our 4th wave, which , meaning we will need to see an ABC, which I can't see quite see just yet. I see the AB, but we're going to have to hold out for a C wave (subwave of wave 4) before we even think about heading down to challenge our support at my line below, which means $8k is going to be a crucial support again.
If my count is incorrect, and we are still on our wave 3 impulse wave down, we could be heading even further down before a reversal.
Overall thoughts are still bearish in the shorter term.
I hope this gives you an idea of how I make my trades. If I can't validate the trend, i.e confirming the Elliott wave count, I will not trade anything until I'm confident in what way the price action will go.
For BTC here, my red box is where I think we'll hit if I'm correct with my current scenario, but I also fully agree with the theory that we're still on our wave 3, which is a more bearish signal IMO, and is a scenario where we could test $5k, which is probably unlikely if we bounce at $8k again.
I'm being patient to see how support holds up before making any trades on BTC.
What am I looking at currently?
I'm currently watching the 4H candle close, looks like a doji (still 2 hours to go haha), but could also be a hammer candle.
If we can close with a higher high in the next 4H candle, I suspect we're heading up to the resistance at $9.5k in the next couple of days which is going to be huge if we break through, however I feel it's unlikely unless we get shit tons more volume.
If we close below, setting a lower low, we'll come down just as expected. This is my most likely scenario. Follow my Elliott waves on the chart and if I have the count correct, which I'm confident of as all the principles of Elliott wave have been met, you can get a general direction of the price action.
Hope this helps, or confirms what you were already thinking. I'll update when things start to change.
Peace.
-B
I like your analysis. While I applied similar techniques, I started the beginning of my first impulse wave up/ fib levels on July 7th 2017. I started there because it seemed that a previous cycle of the wave pattern had completed. When I examine your first chart image, it seems you started later in the year because all of your levels are higher than where mine are.
While not all critical points line up perfectly, I think my fib levels correspond well with (2) and (4), and kinda well with (C). What date did you start you fib levels? How well did the points in your Elliott Wave match? I also agree today is another critical day in determining whether or not we have completed the correction cycle. I think we have seen the lowest lows, but am very are that reality could prove otherwise. I am hopeful because it seems the price is currently holding at/ above the Golden Ratio and the lows are getting higher. I would love to see today turn into a green candle later by later in the afternoon for more immediate confirmation, however clarity rarely comes on schedule. But like I said, I completely respect and appreciate your perspective.
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STOPNice analysis! I want to transfer my Bitcoin holdings during the bear market, what coin do you think I should buy to weather out the bear market? Definitely upvoting and following!
@shredz7
u look at swapping portion of btc to USDT or DGD
*do your own research first =)
Yeah well I don’t really trust USDT right now so DGD seems to be a good option. But DGD seems to still be volatile right now... i’ll check it out.
yeah USDT on tension now better be safe =)
Well, I just exchanged to USDT... so I hope it’s not a scam...
best would be converting to fiat, but if you assets are in altcoin exchange like binance, the transaction fee and the selling them for fiat pair exchange fee will apply. And same apply when you going back into it again. Converting to USDT with lower exchange fee maybe better and the ability to go back in again when opportunity presents without waiting for the transfer. Ultimately you have to consider your own opinion of the market going ahead, does it outweighs the short term fee and effort
Good luck =)
Thanks alot!
I'm not making any decisions on alts just yet. The only trades I'm looking at are the following:
If BTC bounces at $8k, I'll enter a position, sell at reversal around $9.5 or just below, and then short it as I feel it's got another leg down, maybe to $6.5.
though using different charting methods,i see price consolidating and next immediate resistance at 9500 zone. Even breaking through that there's another 3 different resistance await around 10200 zone.
i have similar short term bearishness looking at next support zone around the 7400 ish probably it might test again. If it doesnt hold, we can be heading to the 6200 ish zone. Until the trend change and confirm.