A possible scenario: The permissioned Lightning network
I have one thought (I'd call it a "thought" - it's sort of a prediction, which I think have a greater-than-zero probability of happening - and I hope it won't materialize):
We'll get two lightning networks on Bitcoin - one permissioned lightning network run mainly by the biggest exchanges. Payment channels are only opened between identified participants. Identified personal customers may run their own lightning wallets, but the ToS forbids them to route payments further. Business customers may route payments further, provided they have good KYC-procedures in place. Payments can hence be routed between any identified customers of any exchanges having KYC-routines in place, but it will always be possible to track transactions.
The other network is decentralized and permissionless, but has limited capacity, only small transactions may pass through.
Sadly, to be able to buy your coffee, you have to use the permissioned lightning network.
Sadly, I think the permissioned networks will become a reality as a means of acquiescing to the government mandates for transparency, security, and ....wait for it... collecting TAXES.
Cryptocurrency developers are starting to wise up to the fact that they will need to play ball with governments who need to collect taxes on commerce. They are also seeing the need to create partnerships with larger enterprises to ensure adoption and (theoretically) stronger security.... that, and licensing and commercializing exchanges/nodes is another way to monetize cryptocurrency creations.
Decentralization of currency was the catalyst for cryptocurrencies, but capitalism and the established players of the financial world will not simply sit on the sidelines while their dominance is challenged.
I guess that's a quite likely outcome. It's much, much easier for govts to enforce regulations on businesses than individuals.
Will be interesting to see. People can always just use other anon coins if BTC ends up being "controlled"
I think it will be quite good. At least from a stock exchange bitcoin it will be possible to translate on a purse with the small commission.
And do you think anonymous payments will be completely banned, or will people find workarounds?
People will always find workarounds ... the problem is that as long as the general population accepts being totally surveilled, there will only be criminals searching for the workarounds. I already see a trend here in Norway, things are gradually pushed in a direction where almost only criminals are using physical cash. Many politicians and business people are openly talking about getting completely rid of cash.
I believe it is very much important that we push on for using crypto currencies as a means of payment. I believe the "Bitcoin is good for store of value and big settlements, but not for payments"-sentimentality has been quite reckless, because the world is rapidly heading in a direction where payments are automatically deemed as criminal unless the amount and fully verified ID of the receiver and sender is recorded - while mass-adoption of crypto currencies as a means of payment may be just what's needed to nudge the development in a better direction.
"On the blockchain, nobody knows you're a fridge" - I'd love to give some crypto currency to a smart fridge and let it order more food on my behalf - but I'd absolutely not want to give my fridge authority to sign anything on my behalf.
Amazing points! I have to say I’m 99% in agreement! The sheep are asleep. I feel like the ones fighting back even in bitcoin space are far and few. Many cheer governments getting involved even and they give argument that it gives bitcoin legitimacy. The only thing the government cares about is spying on us and knowing everything we do
Wouldn't surprise me if this prediction is spot on (which would be very unfortunate...). Good thing we've got Steemit and several basic universal income projects on their way. Soon we won't need those filthy FIAT currencies at all. Cryptocurrency has elevated the people's awareness and knowledge of inflation and monetary systems, and I believe the greatest scam in history is about to be exposed on a large scale. Well, that's what I'd like to think at least...
Exposed, yes. Challenged, yes. But the financial institutions of the world are gaining influence over the once pure minded developers of cryptocurrencies. The original anarchists who longed for a decentralized currency are quickly becoming outnumbered by the capitalist cryptocurrency developers (such as Ripple) who market their blockchain technologies directly to the financial institutions of the world.
I'm truly surprised we didn't hear more about these developments at Davos.
Forget ripple , blockstream is corrupting things too and they are largly considered bitcoin core. It’s headed in a dangerous direction. I got first time on 5 years of holding bitcoin am gearing it don’t win the battle
If the dealing was from person to person , things would be fine, but entering the government as an intermediary in the process always spoil things
Even for person-person-transactions, banking solutions are heavily pushed nowadays.
So that is mean we are fu*cked anyway lol fees fees fees
Pretty much. Plus governments are going to hold lightning channels to same regulation as banks, thus no Lil guys only blockstreem and big companies can have them in long run
amazing post