Where is the bottom? BTC, a miners perspective
I feel like I need to redo the BTC where is the bottom. It has been a few weeks and I realize that I had the power cost set too cheap. So, I should get a more accurate TERMINAL LOW.
The 'terminal low' is a term that I came up with that represents where the miners are faced to mine for no profit or shut off their machines. This point will be a point of strong support. All of the new coins entering into the market enter through miners and they will be hesitant to sell their coins at a loss or for zero profit. Of course, if they do decide to shut off their machines, the terminal low will adjust to a lower level as well.
There are many factors and mining is a complex racket. I just want to provide the perspective to help you see where there will be some strong support based on those that have access to the new coins (that are more likely to be sold on the open market).
Looking at charts alone does not account for the fact that the number of miners on the market has doubled or tripled. The support line will increase with the difficulty level of the mining.
So, let's take a look at BTC.
We are going to assume all miners on the network are s9's and that all miners are mining for 8 cents /kw/h or $2.63 / day / s9. These are strong assumptions that are obviously not 100% accurate, they will simplify the math and get us a fairly decent picture of where that terminal low will be.
Bitcoin network: 50,226 PH = 50,226,000 TH
s9 = 14 TH
Therefore: 3,587,571 s9's are online.
bitcoin: 12.5 coins / block every 10 minutes. = 1800 coins / day (spread among the 3.59 million s9's)
3,587,571 x 2.63 = $9,435,311 (that is the electricity cost of the Bitcoin network / day !!!)
spread that across the 1800 coins printed and... $5241.83
The terminal low for BTC is $5241.83.
There will be very strong support at that point and it will have a tough time breaking below that number.
Please note... I made a bunch of assumptions and am not a professional... please know that this is not investment advice, just a bit of help in the research you are doing to come up with your own plan. Thank you.