Where is the bottom? BCH: A miners perspective

in #bitcoin6 years ago

Screen Shot 2018-08-21 at 9.53.38 PM.png

Photo taken from coinwarz.com which show us mining data.

Alright! If you have been following me at all, you would know that I have been doing a little bit of math to come up with the TERMINAL LOW from a miners perspective. This essentially is where the miner no longer is making any profit from mining and is forced with the choice of mining at a loss / wash or shutting off the hardware.

This choice, of course, changes where the bottom could go to, if the miner decides to shut off the equipment. So, my math is not calling a bottom, just calling where there will be a strong support. Miners are not looking to lose money operating their mines. If the coin drops down to a level that is not profitable for the miner to sell, will they sell? My guess is that most won't. This, in turn, will put upward pressure on the coin and voila... we have hit the bottom and bounced up.

The terminal low that I called for LTC was spot on. It hit just below $53 for a brief moment and went back up.

So... let's look at BCH.

Currently there is 4240 PH on the BCH network. Or, 4,240,000 TH. Let's assume each machine is a 14 TH antimatter s9 for ease of math and that all ant miners are paying 8 cents /kw/h or 2.53 / day in electricity costs. These are major assumptions, but of the sake of the experiment, let's go with it... it should get us close.

So, there are 302,857 (with these assumptions) s9's supporting the BCH network.

There are 12.50 new coins released every block, which happens every 10 minutes, or 1800 new coins / day, rewarded exclusively to these s9's.

302,857 times 2.53 = $766,228.21 ---> That is how much it costs in electricity to support the BCH network currently.

766,228.21 / 1800 = $425.68

The TERMINAL LOW for BCH is 425.68 with the assumptions that I have made. It is currently $100 over that at the moment... but we can safely say that there will be some strong support for BCH at this level.

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