BIP91 Has Locked In! UASF is Dead. Could Bitcoin Hit New ATH?
Screenshot from Coindance showing BIP 91 has now locked in
BIP 91 Locked In
I posted a couple of days ago about BIP 91 - this is a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that once locked in would prevent activation of the UASF (or BIP 148) which has been the source of so much fear in the markets.
Well BIP 91 has now locked in which means that SegWit will soon become active on Bitcoin!
Anticipation of this happening seems to have already pushed the Bitcoin price up to new highs (for this month).
So what happens next?
Well as I understand it after a further 2 days of blocks BIP 91 will activate - this is a grace period to give people time to change their software to signal for Segwit. SegWit will activate roughly 2 activation periods (4 weeks) after this.
Thanks to @cardboard for his infographic which clarifies this in an easy to read manner.
Given the extremely positive reaction that there has been to the rising signalling of BIP 91 I think we will see a lot of people who were holding off on buying Bitcoin entering the market again.
There could be some steep gains, perhaps even conclusively breaking the $3K ceiling and making a new floor.
Strong FOMO could even push it some way beyond that.
Overall I think we will see the cryptocurrency markets turn more bullish again.
As I have explained before the more money that flows into bitcoin, the larger the total supply available to altcoins becomes as well.
So it is all plain sailing from here then?
Not quite as previously discussed the next hurdle will come in roughly two months time (after SegWit activation - so late October at the earliest) when there is a planned doubling in Bitcoin block size as per the SegWit 2x plan.
This will require an actual hard fork. As part of the "New York Agreement" - the same mining pools and companies which have signalled/supported BIP 91 have pledged that they will support the hard fork.
Despite this we may see renewed fear and uncertainty at that point as the words "hard fork" tend to scare a lot of people in the bitcoin community.
Given how relatively smoothly this has gone it seems likely that may also end up causing less turmoil (than expected) in practice.
We will have to wait and see.
Anyway it's quite late here and I will be going to bed shortly so may not be able to respond to all comments until tomorrow.
I'm going to buy bitcoin now thanks to this post hahaha :)
Cool but be careful the markets don't always make sense.
ok :)
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This was very helpful. Thanks for sharing. I think there will be wonderful opportunities for trading in the next few months.
UAHF here we come.
Indeed, most actual bitcoin users want the UAHF to bigger blocks. Check out this poll that can't be sybil attacked (voting requires signing a bitcoin address): https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
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In this post I examine why the UAHF is probably going to cause a short squeeze on Bitcoin this weekend leading into next week. You can make money on this, but it will be risky.
Why the $BCC Fork Will Cause a Short Squeeze in Bitcoin That Affects You
UAHF is a name given to something else.
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/uasf-vs-uahf-explained
Bitcoin is very strong today, $2600+-.
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HODL.
Yes I think particularly when Segwit actually activates the price may break 3K.
Segwit is DOA. BitcoinCash is forking Aug 1 and will take majority hashpower with it.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ancap47/bitcoin-hf-coin-already-has-started-trading-against-cny-on-viabtc-exchange
https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
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You just did it again. I have therefore flagged your last post which also featured the same bot like comment in your own responses!
Yes, agree. Bitcoin is up by 40% this week. Gold and Silver are in the 2-3% range. Here's an outlook how it performed compared to the rest.
https://steemit.com/main/@az-charts/recap-what-happened-this-week-in-the-markets-steem-price-bitcoin-price-analysis-in-all-markets
I think it is good that it came to BIP91. It may be the best solution for the future. As most of the coins are so dependent on BTC, it will also be the right way for us all I hope. Let´s hope the best and stay positive. Every Cryptocoin is only as valueable as the community behind it ;)
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Just be careful family! Coinbase is not allowing trades on July 31st
That shouldn't be necessary now. Obviously the market loves Segwit coming to Bitcoin. The innovation floodgates will be open. I think the last of the sub $3k bitcoins will be sold very, very soon.
Don't be fooled by bankster propaganda, actual bitcoin users overwhelmingly prefer bigger blocks - NOT segwit: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
Bear in mind to vote in that poll you have to actually sign a bitcoin address you own. It can't be rigged by a sybil attack.
Regular Bitcoiners want big blocks? In what universe? Maybe Bitcoin users who know next to nothing about what makesit truly valuable and disruptive would go that route. Big blocks are the darlings of those who want cheap short term fees at any cost... like Ver, or Garzik (who has a Bitcoin analytics company), or corporations who want to control it, or governments who want to know the details of your every last transaction for you dossier and tax records. Big blocks is the opposite of a private & truly fungible Bitcoin.
Ancap47 where did you get those upside down ideas?
Yeah, you're right, who would want lower fees and faster transaction times? That's just crazy! /s
Not at the cost of centralization I don't. That's not bitcoin. You want fast transactions, use Visa.
How will it centralize anything? The centralization is currently the main Bitcoin client that has been taken over by govt/corp interests.
That loose collection of 100+ open source Core developers are gov/corp interests? Again... in what universe? It is the big block camp that aligns closely with the govt-corp agenda. They want to track and tax it all with all transactions on a large trackable blockchain that requires very large computing platforms to manage. Do you think some individual freedom loving cypherpunks are going to have the resources or interest in running and developing for that future version of Bitcoin? The bigblock agenda hands that totally dystopian future to them [the statists) on a friggin' silver platter! It is layer2 that allows for privacy and all the things that governments & corporations fear. Look up LN, Sidechains, MimbleWimble etc. These privacy centric features are not wanted by Jihan and his bigblock-ASICBOOST-miner-killswitch buds at the PBOC.
Seriously, you are 1) ignorant and willfully so, or 2) a shill--and a probably paid one. I am leaning towards no. 2. I would add 3) stupid, but nobody in the BItcoin space is that stupid.
anarchy can not be capitalist
Wrong. Anarchy IS capitalism.
HAHAHAHAHA
"[private] property is theft"- the first anarchist
now fuck off lmao
anarchy is the destruction of all unjustified hierarchy. Private property itself was stolen during the enclosure acts, through force. Once it was all collective property, now the workers must fight each other to work under the capitalist just to survive. Without guards nothing would keep capitalism in existence.
Capitalism has never existed without a government, while we have hundreds of examples of communism and socialism. You lack fundamental understanding of anarchy and you disgust me.
I wonder if they will scrap their plans now?
Just use Tether! Trade your money for Tether if you think bitcoin is going to crash and you want to buy some or sell your bitcoin for tether if you can't sell it on coinbase! Later you can sell you tether for bitcoin and cash that out.
What is tether?
Tether is crypto coin that is fixed to the dollar price, so 1 tether is always one dollar. Instead of cashing out you bitcoins to dollar you could simply buy tether and stay in the crypto world without taking care of fees and taxes.
You gotta take the risks of holding your coin at BItfinex to mess with Tether.
Bitfinex like many exchanages past & present have significant risks. Here's the latest interesting bit of reading about 'finex.
https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4?source=linkShare-89b4ba3f2b62-1502043610
hmm right, what about steemdollar? You can keep them in your wallet and they kinda work the same way.
This is really good news, thanks for sharing it with us! I'm following you for a while now, and you explained this earlier this week, now it is "locked in", nice! But what about all the others, who are not supporting it? How does this work? Do they need to have more then 51% of the mining power to make changes? So we can be sure August 1 will be a good day, filled with mainstream media attention and even more money coming in the cryotospace??
Starting in a couple days, miners will start orphaning blocks that aren't signaling for the original version of segwit (bip141). Miners that intend to fork will still signal 141 to avoid being orphaned, but will switch to bitcoin-abc client on Aug 1 to start mining bigger blocks.
Big blockers have at least 50% hashrate and overwhelming economic support from actual bitcoin users: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
Segwit coin will fail miserably if it loses 50% hashpower. Either way, make sure you have your coins in a wallet where you'll be able to access BOTH coins in the event of a split.
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Thanks for your explanation, and yes, my bitcoins are offline and secured! ;-)
Don't see where you are getting 50% of hashpower from. If that were true we would have had scaling already. We will see though.
Half of all miners are STILL signaling Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic. Why?
Also, why are both Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic spending time and money to develop clients that will fork off with Bitcoin-ABC on Aug 1?
Did you think Jihan and Roger just changed their minds about Segwit? What gave you that idea?
Where is that information from?
signaling? You can look on the blockchain.
Exactly and I don't see it.
Half of all miners are still signaling Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic. Why?
BitcoinCash fork already trading at numbers that put it over a billion market cap - and it hasn't even forked yet!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ancap47/bitcoin-hf-coin-already-has-started-trading-against-cny-on-viabtc-exchange
Keep in mind, some larger exchanges may not give you both coins such as Coinbase.
According to Coinbase, they will not be allowing customers access to any Bitcoin Cash. So if you have 10 BTC on Coinbase, they will steal your 10 Bitcoin Cash.
Note that locking in BIP 91 is not the same thing as locking in Segwit. BIP 91 is an activation mechanism for Segwit, that functions like the UASF does. Locking in BIP 91 amounts to miners saying, "336 blocks from now, we all promise to ignore non-Segwit-signalling blocks, and build a chain of Segwit-supporting blocks."
Assuming that all the miners now supporting BIP 91 stick to the terms of that agreement, after a short, 336 block grace period, they will begin mining, and mining on top of, Segwit-signalling blocks only. This means that if there are still miners creating non-Segwit blocks, they will have limited hashpower, and consequently be building a much smaller chain than the Segwit-mining majority.
Because the network accepts the longest blockchain as the valid one, these non-Segwit miners will be building an invalid chain, giving them a significant financial incentive to switch to the Segwit chain. Because all blocks in this chain will be signalling for Segwit, the next 2016-block signalling period for Segwit itself should reach the needed 95% signalling threshold required for activation. Then, after another grace period, Segwit itself should activate, and will be usable on the network.
This all assumes that these miners do what they've comitted to do. If they break their word at some point, the situation sort of explodes in complexity, and a lot of what I've written above becomes invalid.
To speak more directly to your question, the miners who do NOT support Segwit, as noted above, will be mining a minority chain, and subject to having their blocks rejected by the majority of the hashpower.
If miners and users prefer a chain without Segwit (and presumably bigger blocks) they will likely hard fork themselves away from the majority consensus rules, creating an altcoin. This prevents a lot of potential harmful interference between the two chains. Currently, this hard fork effort is known as BitcoinCash, and uses client software BitcoinABC.
Note that the "success" or "failure" of a lot of these initiatives, whether they be activation mechanisms, technologies, concensus rules, or altcoins, are subject to the support of both miners and users. I mention this because we don't have a clear idea of where miner and user support really lands on a lot of these proposals. We know what they're saying, yes, but we don't know if they are being genuine in signalling their support, or if they'll change their minds.
It's completely possible, for example, for users to support Segwit2x long enough to activate Segwit, and then not follow a 2 MB hard fork. It's also possible for a fork of the Bitcoin software to start out with overwhelming miner support, and for that support to migrate away from that chain if there is insufficient use of that coin to maintain the value of that coin (and thus, profitable mining).
There have been a couple of attempts (1 & 2) at Sybil-resistant straw polls. Thus far, both polls reflect the biases of the faction that created them (among other biasing issues), making them minimally effective as real gauges of opinion. I'm not aware of any good indicators, but there are ideologues on either side who exhibit (I'll say this diplomatically) misleading optimism and confidence about how things "will" work out. I advise you to interpret such claims with caution, even when they are represented as fact, and to do your own research, using a variety of sources and opinions.
@grnt0352 thanks for your explanation! This makes a lot of my questinsore so clearly answered!
August 2, "The day of the oversold Lambos"
haha, nice one!
As I understand it those people won't get excluded anyway. It is not a hard fork. If someone is completely against it they can fork off their own chain but it won't be bitcoin.
Big Blockers are forking off on Aug 1. If they take a significant amount of hashpower with them, they WILL be bitcoin since they will be the longest chain.
I very much doubt that since the majority of hashpower is behind the Segwit 2 x whether you like it or not. People are free to fork off if they want but it is basically irrelevant - if they had the kind of support that they need then we would have had scaling a long time ago.
Signaling NYA and actually supporting it are two very different things. If all these miners really supported segwit, why didn't they signal all those months up to NYA? Why are they STILL signaling Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic? Why are node coints going up for both? Why are both BU and Classic both spending time and money developing clients to fork off with Bitcoin-ABC on Aug 1st?
Did you really think they just changed their minds about Segwit? Their Chief Scientist just did a talk about how Segwit is bad for the network. No one has refuted his points.
So far I have seen no hard data to back up what you say.
Everything I said you can look up on the blockchain or in forums.
Cool!
Yeah Babe. i knew it. Hold Hold Hold Game..
Hard Fork to bigger blocks is happening on Aug 1st without Segwit (see bitcoincash.org). If you haven't heard about it over all the propaganda, you can see that the majority of actual bitcoin users support the fork to bigger blocks over segwit: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
Make sure you have your coins in a wallet that gives you BOTH coins in the case of a chain split. Bigger blocks will likely take 50% or more of hashpower making segwit coin worthless.
3325 BTC of support is meaningless though. Further it doesn't matter how much BTC people hold anyway - what matters is the hashrate supporting it.
A couple of points, to expand on the thoughts in this thread.
Short term profit isn't the only thing that drives the behavior of miners. Ideology, long term gain, political power, externalities, etc. all play a role. I want to emphasize that this meme, "hashpower is the only really important thing," is probably oversimplifying a very complex . If heuristics like that were true enough to act on, we could throw out the entire canon of behavioral econ.
Early trading on ViaBTC for the BitcoinCash fork puts it at over a billion dollar marketcap, and the fork hasn't even happened yet:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ancap47/bitcoin-hf-coin-already-has-started-trading-against-cny-on-viabtc-exchange
Great points. It is more complex but as you point out that poll is not really evidence. Also I think whether we like it or not most of the mining power is quite centralised and those who have a say have already voted with their hashing power.
It's a poll - they never include everyone. Its called a representative sample.
Can you point to a better one that also can't be sybil attacked?
It's irrelevant. The hash rate is all that matters.
yep, and there will be hashpower for big block fork.
I don't see it but who knows for sure. We will just have to wait.
I like toast 🍞
Yes. :)
This very good news indeed , i can only hope that this the solution to all the fee market issues and use cases that were mad obsolete or unprofitable by the big fees become possible
Just imagine the boost it will give bitcoin , if micropayments , like the ones for game items or similar applications become feasible again
I hope this is just the beggining and more changes are made so bitcoin can scale even more
Micropayments with segwit are a no-go until Lightning Network is done and that is pure speculation at this point. Big Blockers fork off on Aug 1 and will likely take at least 50% hashpower with them. Right now, actual bitcoin users are overwhelmingly in favor of big blocks over segwit: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
With larger blocks micropayments could perfectly fit in the blocks and be feasible , Satoshi conceived this as one of the uses of the network , right built-in , without the need for side-chains and thirdparty solution
All those things can be achieved on-chain.
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And here's how the SegWit2x schedule looks like:)
Bitcoin will fork to bigger blocks on Aug 1 and make that chain pretty irrelevant.
Yeah, because panic sell and 50% price drop is what every big btc holder wants. Not gonna happen, sorry.
Thanks!