RE: Bitfinex's estimated revenue, and why I am selling my BFX tokens
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4x4qlx/bitfinex_company_value/
I read the above thread several days ago and thought I'd share as a starting point. The bitcoin space is red hot regarding venture capital per the many funding rounds in private companies such as coinbase. This is a growth space and it should be valued as just that.
That said, Bitfinex has taken a massive body blow and we all know any investor will expect more equity for less $ at this point in time. I know there are interested parties, however I have no idea what the details look like. I also know there are many token holders who would love (even now) to own a piece of Bitfinex going forward.
I believe their rev number leans towards 20 million yoy, however we all know it will take some time, trust, and proof for customers to return in full force. I suspect Bitfinex can and will actually be the hero when this is all said and done. If so, their growth curve will go parabolic. These are simply assumptions on my part and offer little to no value in this discussion, but I truly believe this will be the case.
I'm guessing (yes, another assumption) 30%+ of the tokens will be taken private via an equity stake. I HIGHLY suspect some folks with deep pockets are actively buying the tokens to get a decent sized equity stake through the discounted back door. Some of these "folks" were interested in Bitfinex before the recent event and they will see opportunity.
These are the folks who still see value and a discount in the current token price. I also think BFX will receive a cash investment and most of the investment will go towards a decent sized payment towards the token holders. The above coupled with future earnings potential can and likely will lead to the complete repayment of the tokens. This will catapult BFX into the most trusted exchange as they capitalize on a big stumble.
My market cap guess obviously includes the tokens at a $1 valuation. I'm including their debt in my above figure.