Bitcoin Daily Update (day 200)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

Full disclosure: I have been golfing, drinking, smoking and doing drugs since 9:00 am PST. We claimed it was to raise money for youth hockey, but I don't think that is why most of us showed up. Just realized today is the 200th post and that is a great reason to celebrate! Thank you to everyone who reads this regularly, I <3 you all!

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: “Will we get one more squeeze that takes us to $6,700 - $6,800 or will we sell off from here? I would say it is about 55%:40% and 5% other.” / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: Weakening S = $6,465 | R: $6,515 - $6,526
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be forming bull flag . Makes me think of what we saw recently with ETHUSDSHORTS
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.047%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Currently testing 12 for support | 26 = -1.49%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -2.19% | 128 = -6.85%
Volume: 4 hour chart: large volume on yesterday’s selloff should require = / > volume to break $6,574 and so far it has averaged < half.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,637 | 0.786 = $6,414
Candlestick analysis: 4h shooting star , doji and hanging man show significant signs of a top.
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud has been serving as strong resistance and just had a bullish TK’ Cross
TD Sequential: Green 5 on the daily. 1h has top on a 9 on the last two run ups.
Visible Range: Looking back to February when we have continued to test this price makes the most sense and it shows the point of control at $6,514 and a high volume node up to $6,724
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = - | 24h = +0.04% | 1w = +4.38% | 2w = -10.3% | 1m = +3.85%
Bollinger Bands: Expected to test MA at $6,725 after bouncing from bottom band
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,925
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065
On Balance Volume: Moving w price, no div’s
ADX: Indicates no trend
Chaikin Money Flow: Turning over on daily for a slight bear div
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.02 | D = 46.76
Stoch: Looks like %K is turning over for a test of %D on the daily. A recross here would be very bearish . However look at the last runup, it had multiple tests that found support.

Summary: This is titled ‘Bitcoin Daily Update’ but the bottom line is that I believe the market has been driven mostly by the ETH selloff over the past couple months. Right now ETH is testing the down trend that I pointed out in yesterday’s post. My gut tells me it is either going to bounce hard and fast or it will get rejected again.

“Great analysis Sawcruhteez, the market is either going to bounce or sell off…what other brilliant insights do you have today”

GFY!

Sorry, I did not mean that. I appreciate each and every one of you! If you missed the disclaimer above I have been drinking and smoking and doing drugs all day long.

Back to the charts...this is where the risk:reward is what you should be thinking about. If it breaks through the trendline then exit the position. However if it gets rejected then it should sell off hard and fast.

If you took the EOS:ETH short that I entered in the last couple days then now is a good time to be paying close attention. As I write this it is in the profit, but this could just be a 4 candle pullback before it retests the all time highs. If this daily candle breaks 0.025305 at any time then it could be a time to exit or trim your position.

Thanks for reading!

Allow me to Reintroduce Myself...
Learn How to Trade! [part 1]
Learn How to Trade! [part 2]
Wyckoff Distribution
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison
The Most Overvalued Coin in Crypto: EOS
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 199)