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That's my thought as well. Why is the first peak not part of the pattern?

Possibility, yes. However, there is quite a bit of sentiment out there about this 'lower low' that may occur. It comes down to the sellers vs the buyers, and if people quit buying, well... we'll see that lower low sooner than later. If BTC hit 13k and dropped to 11k, and now bounces up to 14k+, I'd be very surprised. Right now it appears Haejin's analysis would be more probable.

Still, thanks to both you and @kwaman for sharing your input! It is appreciated :)

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