Bitcoin 我的掘礦記事報告二 / My Mining Journal - 2

ryoplasmic (56)in #bitcoin • 7 years ago (edited)

本篇會講首三星期嘅奇妙變化。This is about the magical moment in the 1st 3 weeks of my Bitcoin Mining. (English in the middle) Please note: I am NOT promoting Cloud Mining.

上一篇提及我計算方法嘅錯誤，其實情況並唔係太過惡劣。因為有人搞局，我首三個星期嘅掘礦成果係出乎我所料。我會用我所記錄嘅數據黎講解一下當中嘅神奇之處。

Bitcoin價格爆升

8月一開始，Bitcoin嘅價錢就升至$3300，當時所有外國媒體都有報導，有睇好，有睇淡。但客觀黎講，就絕對係價格利好。因為睇好又好，睇淡又好，有報導就有人會研究，並有人買入。當時係講梗由2017年1月到8月3日有300%嘅升幅。你冇睇錯，300%。我最初買Bitcoin係因為有啲下載點要用Bitcoin購買服務，當時係$1800。而今日嘅價錢已經係講梗歷史高位$5860~~，我當時睇好係絕對有眼光的~~ 睇番轉頭，我8月頭買入雲掘礦服務都算係過份勇敢。

當時我買嘅掘礦合約係$21.95 100GH/s，已經比2個月前嘅$17 100GH/s 貴左接近30%。我揀嘅雲掘礦公司係睇住Bitcoin幾多錢黎加價，今日合約價錢已經升到$34 100GH/s，而且已經唔再係冇時限，只得36個月。呢個$34嘅價錢係升到$5000嗰時定嘅價錢。即係話，當日我買入嘅合約已經比今日嘅價錢平左 55%。

黎到$34，又變成我8月頭時所諗嘅問題：同兩個月前比，Bitcoin已經升左接近100%，同年頭比，已經係600%，而合約價錢亦都係$21.95時嘅2個月由$17，去到今日$34，4個月足足升左100%。如果我家下仲有錢買入合約，兩個月後又會唔會響覺得抵？

OK，唔好亂估，我唔想暗示啲乜野，關於我Bitcoin嘅收益，下一篇會有相反嘅數據。

管理費以Bitcoin計算下降

一如所料，Bitcoin價錢上升，管理費就會下降。不過當然，美金計係冇分別，下降係用Bitcoin黎計，始終我個目的係要儲Bitcoin。

我第一日嘅收成係咁：

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471

去到6日後已經變成咁

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/14	0.00314132	0.00075296	0.00238836	4382.7029

因為Bitcoin價錢上升，我嘅Maintenance 係比少左21%，從中可以睇到Bitcoin嘅價錢對雲掘礦黎講係影響好大。如果我係自己有礦機，月底先交電費，咁每日嘅成本就唔係咁重要，因為唔駛扣掘出黎嘅Bitcoin。

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) 嘅攻擊

有睇我上一篇嘅朋友，應該會記得我講過所掘到嘅礦其實應該係會慢慢下跌，但我今日呢一篇文嘅數據會上升嘅？仲會上升咁多？（見下圖）

我當時其實真係好開心，因為呢個係我意料不及嘅。

睇睇數據：

日期	掘出數量	管理成本	淨收入	價錢
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876

睇下，過左18日，掘出黎嘅礦會多左 0.00063610，多左20%。加上價錢上升令每日成本減少，我個淨收益係多左39%。點解呢？

因為響8月1日，有一樣野叫做Bitcoin Cash出現左，佢係一個Bitcoin Hard Fork黎。而重點就係佢嘅運作上。~~比特幣現金？香港簡稱係咪比特水？~~

Bitcoin Cash 作為一個Bitcoin Hard Fork，佢係一個直接嘅攻擊黎，佢網絡計算所需要嘅硬件係同Bitcoin一樣，所以當有人覺得掘Bitcoin Cash係可以賺得多錢啲，原本嘅Bitcoin網絡就會被搶走左應有嘅運算能力(Hashrate)，呢個攻擊最明顯就係響8月17至27日。響我張數據圖入面，你會見到右邊嘅粉紅色箭咀就係個Hashrate轉變。

點解我會多左Bitcoin？因為個Hashrate下跌，少左人爭住做交易計算去爭嗰段時間嘅Block Rewards。睇一睇下圖左邊就會見到淺藍色箭咀就係我上升嘅掘礦量（同收入）係反向match到右邊嘅粉紅色箭咀。

即係話，當有任何事會令到Bitcoin嘅Hashrate下跌，掘礦嘅收益就會大大提升。

不過呢個意料之外嘅上升已經因為我手賤而搞到冇左。

睇到呢度，係咪好似好著數？睇落真係可以賺到笑，同我原本驚嘅諗法係完全相反。Well，事情唔係咁嘅，下一篇我會講下之後出現嘅問題。

English Version

This time, I will talked about the magical moment in my 1st 3 weeks of Bitcoin Mining.

In Journal 1, I talk about my projection issues – in fact it is not that bad. Because of some new external influences to the Bitcoin network, my progress was actually better than expected.

Bitcoin Price Boom

Bitcoin price surged to $3300 immediately after the 1st August. At that time, the media covered a lot about Bitcoin, be it bullish or bearish. The results are obvious – more people talked about Bitcoin, looked at Bitcoin, researched Bitcoin and invested in Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin was up 300% since 2017, 300%!! I look back and feel myself brave to buy Bitcoin mining contract at that time. The 1st time I bought Bitcoin was in Spring when price was $1800. Now, the highest price is already $5860. I am actually happy I guessed it right.

The contract price of my cloud mining was $21.95 for 100GH/s, raised from $17 in the previous 2 months at that time. My cloud mining service increases their price when Bitcoin price increases. Now, the contract price increased to $34, and it will expire in 36 months. My price is great compare with the current one, because I have my contract without expiry, and is 55% lower than the $34 they charge now.

Now, $34 for contract, why I keep mention this? Right, 2 months ago, I had my price $21.95 and looked back the $17 contract, my $21.95 is expensive. Look back from this point, $21.95 was a very good deal.

I am not pushing you to buy these contract, I just would like to say the history repeated in this 4 months. About if it makes sense or not to buy them now, I will just leave it for next post because there is more info related in the next post.

Maintenance fee in Bitcoin decreases

Just as expected, Bitcoin price increased lead to Maintenance in Bitcoin decreased. The amount for US dollar does not change, but it is irrelevant to me because my goal has been on how much Bitcoin I can accumulate.

My 1st day progress was as follow:

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471

After 6 days:

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/14	0.00314132	0.00075296	0.00238836	4382.7029

The Maintenance decreased by 21% because of Bitcoin price surged. You can see the price of Bitcoin is a very important factor that affect the profitability on cloud mining. If I own a miner and mine Bitcoin myself, the electricity will be paid month end and I would be more flexible, you know, I do not need to sell my Bitcoin every day for the bill.

The Bitcoin Cash (BCH) attack

If you have read my Journal 1, you should remember the mined Bitcoin should decrease gradually. Why the data I am showing in this story is different? The mined Bitcoin increases!

I was very happy at that time. I am still feeling blessed now.

Let’s see the data.

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876

Look. 18 days, the mined amount increased 0.00063610, a 20% increase. Together with price surges that made the maintenance reduced, the net income I got was 39% more. Why?

Bitcoin Cash is a hard fork altcoin that needs the same ASIC machine to mine Bitcoin. The processing power in the network (hashrate) of the original Bitcoin network greatly reduced. This attack was most severe between 17 AUG and 27 AUG. In my plot, you can see at the right the pink arrow is showing this change in hashrate in the original Bitcoin network.

Why my mined Bitcoin increased? Because the hashrate decrease, there are fewer participants to fight for the block rewards and therefore my cloud mining service helped me to mined more Bitcoin, as show in the right in blue arrow, inversely matching the pink arrow at the right.

This means, for whatever incidence that make the Bitcoin Hashrate decreases, ~cloud~ mining income would increase

Well, it is too bad that my gain during the Bitcoin Cash attacks are offset by my Monero story…..

So now, you think it is good to get cloud mining? Hold on, don’t get into it. I will tell you more in my next story. Stay tuned.