My attempt at a predicting the new 'stable-ish' base price of Bitcoin.
Hey there Steemians,
Disclaimer:
This is the speculative result of my own personal analysis, which I will be using for myself. Always do your own thorough research before making any decision. I may be 'completely' wrong.
Bitcoin has experienced four major bubbles since its inception back in 2009, including the one we are experiencing now. Between each bubble, is a 7 to 46 month accumulation period (+/- 2 years) of reasonably flat stability. These basins of stability between each bubble, reflect the new, and so far consistently higher, base value of Bitcoin during that time.
A popular accumulation strategy is to slowly dollar cost average during these basins of stability. Which leads to the question; Presuming that we are coming to the end of the fourth Bitcoin bubble now, then what will the new base price be, for the new accumulation period?
Note:
It 'appears', as though this particular bubble is coming to an end. It is still not 100% clear that it is definitely ending yet.
I have analysed the previous three bubbles and come to a number for my self. I don't think I need to say it again, but don't make any decisions based on my analysis. I am just offering the results of my analysis here, for the sake of interest. Always make decisions based on your own analysis. But for the sake of interest and entertainment, here is the new target base value for Bitcoin, that my analysis has revealed.
~ $2287
Since crypto currencies are fairly sensitive to collective whole number psychological levels, I'll call the range, $2000 to $2500.
This is my calculated 'opinion', of where the new base price of Bitcoin will settle, until the next bubble some time during the next two years. My model also aligns with other valuation methods, offering a speculative and 'statistically likely' peek of $10000+ for the next bubble. Followed by a new base price at that time, of between $4000 and $5000, if that fifth bubble takes place any time from 2020 onwards.
It may be said that we are participating in the extreme sport of speculative investment. Some of us 'will' get hurt. So just be careful out there, and stay safe.
...And don't listen to me. I have no clue what I'm doing.
Its a solid investigation and I think you are right, however the psychological influence is strong as well as the greed of the NEW waves of money that will wash into bitcoin - it's an unregulated thing, so once the tops start orchestrating buys and sells, there will be many cast out in the crushing lows while the media tells them to buy in the highs! So it goes i guess.. Something that I think will stimulate bitcoin beyond most ideas is that ICO and altcoins are gaining public awareness and a ton of money will be flowing in (and out) of these coins for the foreseeable future, and for the foreseeable future, most of those transactions will occur through bitcoin.
haha love the last line. I'm all ears.
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