RE: Why Bitcoin Could Fall Lower From Here
@snakemeister, I see you're another CI fan. FWIW, I'll provide my take on why I'm playing in an over valued market. Because markets can continue in an over valued (I never like the term overbought for technical reasons.) manner for an unusually long time. That is reason 1. Reason 2, I've only allocated around 5-6% of my resources to cryptos at present and have no plans for significantly increasing the allocation until I see a crash. Reason 3, I use stops and advance the stops below trend lines. That cost me about 20-30% of my positions in the 12/22 whipsaw. I'm just calling it a noob mistake and adjusting my rules a bit more conservatively. Given a little more time at these levels I'll have a full position in BTC, ETH, and LTC at a reasonable basis (I hope, cringe.) My plan is to be in position for the next leg up whenever that is. In the mean time I'm simply trying to absorb some wisdom on the margins from quality sources like CI.
Regards,
Rick
@ricknarveson Thanks for your input. It's always great to get multiple perspectives on a particular question. Sorry to hear about your whipsaw loss. Stops can be a little deceiving as they tend to make us feel more secure (as they are intended to) but they still have the potential to bite you in the rear! All learning experiences, and as you say CI has some good unbiased logic to share!
Thanks for sharing!
The loss was one of my cheaper tuition payments to the school of hard knocks. I've had some doozies and have slept much easier and more profitably since I made them a hard and fast rule early in 2016 (in the stock market).
One thing that unsettles me a little about the crypto market is that it never sleeps. Do you know anything about bots? I was looking into Haas but since I can't talk to someone there they'll have to make do without my business.
Regards,
Rick