RE: Bitcoin Mania Has Arrived! I Will Be in My Bunker.
When markets are understood, the idea that everyone can make money is not only inaccurate but impossible and laughable. Everyone making money means there is no market, because who would be taking the other side of the trade?
It is no mistake that individuals begin to like the same sorts of fashions that everyone is wearing. In a quest to change, the majority of society ends up changing together, moving towards similar desires and away from similar dislikes. Therefore, what the market is offering provides the exact thing that will lure the trader into the crowd.
For example, someone who has little experience investing wants to get involved because everyone else in their social circle is, ads are all over tv and even their nightly newscasters are talking a lot more about how the market is so good. In this environment you can be certain there will be lots of “helping hands” to welcome this investor to the crowd, teach them to be a part of the crowd and initiate them into the world of the blind leading the blind.
The market is unlikely to reverse to any significant degree until almost everyone is on one side. Which means almost everyone who joined that party late is going to lose. A bunch of people may just decide to wait, but so will the market. And if people are divided then the market will move in a ranging fashion.
People are the catalyst and without people to create an extreme the market won’t hit an extreme and reverse–remember the market does not act on its own, we…the people… are the market. In other words, the boom and bust cycles will not end. We progress and regress and then progress again.
Until almost everyone is in the trend, it won’t stop. The trend will keep going, enticing more people in, and when it reaches critical mass (which it can’t do without pretty much everyone on board) a reversal occurs. This change in fortune (for the worse) causes concern and then panic as a full reversal occurs. And as the mood of society continues to grow darker people feel more hopeless and give up fanciful notions of making money with crypto and so it will continue to drop.
In other words, the very thing which lures people in droves (big returns) ironically means that most of those people will be on the losing end of that exchange. In another ironic twist, when people clamor into the market all at once out of greed and a belief that a new era has begun, they bring about the exact opposite. @pawsdog
I totally agree with you, but the percentage of folks participating is way too low to bring about what you are saying to fruition currently, and only when Grandma is invested should you worry.
You were saying?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/woman-seen-feeding-cash-into-bitcoin-atm-was-scammed-police-say-1.4262285
https://money.usnews.com/investing/buy-and-hold-strategy/articles/2017-08-28/does-bitcoin-belong-in-your-portfolio
That aside and not to be a wise ass or talk down but the mentality of your last post only but reaffirms my previous post. Lets take look at history, which always repeats itself as the market is just the greed and fear cycles of human nature put to numbers with charts and volume.
History tells us without fail that a big downside reversal can coincide with a climax run, which is another key sell signal. Bad reversals may involve the heaviest daily volume since the start of the big move, the largest one-day point loss, or the widest daily or weekly price spread ever.
If we apply the idea of Bitcoin to another once hyped "life changing, mind bending, institution wrecking technology"-- fuck the power company, I don't need them. I'm going solar, we can draw some parallels. I seriously doubt grandma was putting her 401k in solar.
Solar stocks were red hot in 2007. SunPower (SPWR), one of the best performers, recovered from a third pullback to the 50-day moving average following its initial breakout in December 2006. In September 2007, the stock ramped to new highs.
On Nov. 8, SunPower surged as much as 13% intraday, hitting an all-time high of 164.49. At its best levels that day, the stock was up more than 100% since the start of its rebound two months prior.
But SunPower then showed a big change of heart and ended 2% lower in huge volume.
The price spread from high to low was nearly 20%. SunPower continued to plummet and fell 68% by March 2008 eventually trading in single digits before rebounding.
I'm also not saying BTC will die, it will most certainly recover in some form be it Legacy, Gold, 2x, or whatever. The concept have proven itself. It may be like Apple, and crash to nill only to rise from the ashes to new heights.
http://www.wisebread.com/the-4-greatest-stock-reversals-in-the-last-decade