12/7/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin. Can you say price mania? I was reading a post yesterday on Steemit about a guy that says he now has 80 percent of his entire net worth tied up in Bitcoin. That to me is fucking scary…I read another post on a site where a user was going to take out a second mortgage against his home in order to buy Bitcoin and just use the “Guaranteed Profits” to pay it back. When reason, risk management and common sense are thrown out the window it is time to step back and take a breath.
It’s time to ask why? Why is the price appreciating at an uncontrollable rate? What is the actual value of the underlying asset? How practical is its everyday use and how has it, can it, or does it change my everyday life for the better? Is Bitcoin a marketable cure for cancer; nope.. (well maybe, the cancer that is the current financial system of oppression and control by the bank owned government). But even then how does it benefit you? How does it change your everyday life? Are you paying your mortgage in Bitcoin? Is your utility company and phone company direct debiting your Bitcoin wallet for monthly fees? Nope… So what, you get all your money out of FIAT, fuck the bank they can’t lend my money out and make a profit anymore.. now what? You still have to convert it back to $$$ at some point to handle your monthly expenses. I think that is the paradox, that we are playing the game to get more of what we actually despise; dollars.
My wife has around 2000 friends on Facebook; this being the result of her being a decade younger than me and growing up in a generation wherein social status was determined by your friend count. I keep tabs on Crypto related postings within her peer group. Of note is she is from a very small town in Ohio wherein farming and trade with the Amish dominate the local economy. That said I have noticed a shift from “Buy, Buy, Buy”, to “get the fuck out now!”, “Sell, its going to come crashing down”, “Don’t buy anymore now”, etc. That being today’s postings.
When I start hearing a bunch of shit kickers that were previously on the buy train losing faith in the ride and looking to get off at the next station it concerns me. Perhaps this group of market savvy tech geeks has carefully analyzed the charts, volume moving averages and determined that a pullback is in the works; or perhaps their spidey sense is telling them that something just does not feel right. Like going camping with your buddy and waking up with a flashlight pressed into the small of your back; wait we didn’t have any flashlights.. WTF…It just feels wrong.
When reason, risk management and common sense are thrown out the window it is time to step back and take a breath. At this moment the price of Bitcoin is based solely on the expectation that it will increase in value. Absent that expectation, well I don’t think I need to elaborate there. I was in another conversation on STEEMIT in regards to market tops wherein he stated that not everyone is in yet, not everyone is on one side of the trade so we having nothing to worry about, that he would only start to worry about it being fiction not fact if “Grandmas start buying Bitcoin”. To that end, I organically came across this today in my perusing of the news:
“Rita Scott’s grandson convinced her in mid-November to get in on the latest investing sensation and buy bitcoin. “I thought it was a big coin,” the 70-year-old said. “I didn’t even know what it was, a piece of coin? Why would I invest in a piece of coin?” With a few hundred dollars of her money she invested in it, and started checking the prices several times a day, even while playing video poker at a casino in her hometown of Las Vegas.”
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-mania-even-grandma-wants-in-on-the-action-1511996653
Consider if you will that the 70 year old Grandma above is who you are throwing your money in after. Her buy and the droves of less than informed speculators that buy with her are directly responsible for the high premium you now pay for a Bitcoin. As for me I would prefer tossing my lot in after analyst that have actually examined the underlying value of an asset; not based on pure speculation.
To those that have made a killing in the last few weeks or days may hats off to you. Your irrationality paid dividends, but you have to be looking for a time to convert those paper profits into real profits. The market is extremely volatile right now, and I see Etherium and LTC price action reflecting that. Everyone seems to be waiting for the crash at the moment. Last night people were jumping ship on Litecoin and quickly dumped 180,000 coins to try and get ahead of the crash that didn’t happen. This type of fear makes investing extremely risky.
To me the current irrational rise in BitCoin price and inevitable result are demonstrated below:
Here is Bitcoin price over time and how long it took to achieve each milestone.
$0000 - $1000: 1789 days
$1000-$6000: 280 days
$6000- $7000: 13 days
$7000- $8000: 14 days
$8000- $9000: 9 days
$9000-$10000: 2 days
$10000-$11000: 1 day
$11000-$12000: 6 days
$12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
$13,000-$14,000: 4 hours
$14,000-$15,000: 10 hours
$15,000-$16,000: 5 hours
$16,000-$20,000: 2.5 hours
$20,000-->$15,000: 37 Minutes.
So what do the charts say; well Bitcoin is going to be Bitcoin today.. expect irrational upside price action followed by sharp drops of $1000 or more, followed by more frenzy fueled buys to new highs. The 1 Day, 3 Day and Weekly charts are in uncharted territory. BTC is so extremely overbought at the moment that the Stoch RSI is pegged at 1 and just sitting there as it has been since November 25th. I expect the Bitcoin rally to carry on a bit longer and sweep in some more stragglers before the herd is marched to the slaughter house.
The type, level and scope of correction that we are likely to experience will be nothing short of spectacular. I fully expect to see people jumping from the roofs of high rises to the welcoming pavement below. That said, BTC is not going anywhere, the next major shakeup will not kill it by any means as institutions now have a vested interest in its long term survival. In fact I fully expect it to rise from the Ashes like the Phoenix, and Iwill use its current prices as a measure of where it can go. I choose not to jump in now and be the last to board the Titanic.
Of note, Coinbase seems to be leading the price trend at the moment with upwards of a 10% arbitrage opportunity between Bitfinex and Coinbase at the moment. Coinbase to me is more the accumulation of smaller fish, speculators, and less sophisticated investors than is Bitfinex. That said it seems to drive home at least to my disillusion mind that the vast majority of the price action and demand are coming purely from speculation.
What I will likely do is quick buys and sells of 1 coin here and there as the irrational faith in current BTC prices seem to have some life left. When I am getting $1000 dollar swings, it benefits me to come in and scoop the bottoms.
Etherium @ $438
The $420 dollar support level seems to be holding well but so much is dependent upon Bitcoin right now. As it goes up it sucks money out of Alt coins and into the swirling vortex of Bitcoin price speculation. If BTC manages to hold its price, begins to trade sideways over a period of days then look for a rapid and unprecedented rise in Etherium price. If; however, Bitcoin corrects in a massively spectacular way, expect it the ensuing chaos to come down on Etherium and other Alt coins like Odins Hammer. The sell off will be fucking amazing, it could likely push Etherium to the mid $200 dollar range again. It will be marvelous, like going into Goodwill on half off day, with an additional 50 percent off coupon and a 10 percent veteran’s discount. I don’t think I will trade this one today.
LiteCoin @ $97.50
Not much to write here. Is it a HODL at the moment? Fuck no, we saw that last night when the rats jumping ship slashed the price 6 percent in an hour to get out from under the shadow of the falling sky scraper they saw as the inevitable Bitcoin crash. Is it a buy at this moment? Sure.. prices seem to be swinging mid $90’s to $100.. If you choose to HODL make sure you have tight stops in place to protect against the inevitable correction around the corner. As long as you keep stops you should be good to go, if you can get some trailing stops and set them at 4% even better. As with Etherium if Bitcoin prices can stabilize and hold the current price level, trading neither up nor down, then Litecoin is likely to explode upwards. People in the Crypto world bore easily when Bitcoin is not making gains of 5 percent per day or begins to trade sideways. Accordingly they move back over to Alt Coins. Right now Bitcoin controls the price action so look to it as an indicator of Alt coin action.
My previous analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-6-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-5-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-4-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-3-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-2-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-1-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
insightful stuff, you read like a expert. Are you? What is your background?
Expert by what measure? Did I go to Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, nope.. Do I or have I been a professional trader for 15 years or so; yes. Regular commodities, equities, futures, and residential and commercial real estate before that as well as numerous businesses. This (trading) not steemit is how I make my living actually. I'm a conservative trader that relies on technical analysis. How that incorporates into my writing style can be seen above. I'm no fluff, matter of fact in my content delivery. Some enjoy it and some want a watered down politically correct version which I cannot provide.
Cool, I'll keep all that in mind when I am reading your opinions of the current state of things.
Pleasure sir.
Pleasure is all mine.. thank you :)
Since becoming a member I stumbled across your predictions before anyone elses on steemit, i appreciate your conservative views for sure!
keep up the good work!
No problem, I appreciate it... :) I'm not so much conservative as I am realistic. Take for instance the fact that the price just dropped $2000 and recovered $1000 in the time that it took me to read your comment, fix a typo and generate this response... :).. That is the type of volatility that I want no part off. 17 percent decline in 5 minutes? and the guppies shrug it off and buy back in.. Tells me that we could get a 100 percent correction or better when shit hits the fan, if they are able to shrug off 17 percent like its nothing.. That was a Bitcoin crash before.. lol
I also have to look at it from the perspective of a huge Megladon Shark looking to make a profit (Futures Market).. I see the market is soft in the short term, so I'll just crush it into the dirt.. Take the money from the small investors and use that to pump it back up again and make money both ways...
I tried to move some funds around, and ended up getting a large percentage on my BTC caught up in the kitty clog going on in the Ether. some people are reporting 24+ hours for transaction cofirmation. I did all i can, i guess its in gods hands now.
Im still pretty new to day trading the fast paced crypto markets, so realistic is all i can be. it takes a lot of nerve not to sell out with a 2k price differential.
Easiest way to beat the clog is to sell your BTC into LTC, move where you want then sell the LTC.. It will likely protect you from some volatility during the transfer as well.. :)
thanks for that tidbit of knowledge. I just came in 4 days ago and saw 50% gains. I had hoped to exchange in to a worthwhile altcoin to diversify the portfolio before the sell orders started pouring in, in my inexperience I may lose that profit if it tanks before my transaction clears.
What exchange do you recommend?
What wallet would you recommend?
Any tips?
I'm very tech saavy, just late to the game, I could use some help skipping the catch up part.
Well, lots of questions, so I'll hit them quick.. Firstly.. its not always like this.. what is happening now is not trading its speculating. It is a false God so to speak and is going to trick a lot of people into thinking the are professional traders. So take time, invest in yourself and study.. learn the charts, learn the indicators etc. Me I like the MACD at 7/21/77, the Stoch RSI, Volume and Candlesticks; that me.. may not work for you. As to exchange.. well you can go Coinbase, but they monitor every transaction you make and if you send it somewhere they don't like they arbitrarily close your account. There is Kraken (low volume, allows shorts, but the API sucks, so only use it for a longer term up or down trade), I use Bitrex for ALTs, Coinbase is good for trading as the GUI is fast, I also use Gemini for arbitrage between the two and to buy and move coin to places (OTC BTC websites) Coinbase would close my account for.
Wallet always my own, on my laptop, or offline.. I use the default Bitcoin core wallet bitcoinqt I think its called on a laptop that is never online save when needed to transfer.
Tips? study, study, study, know the charts, no when to hold and when to fold.. I have been upside down in an LTC trade since yesterday about 5k worth.. Not due to a bad call just do to the volatility of this market; it happens.. did I panic sell nope.. I watched the charts and purchased more at a lower buy point (averaging down). Is that a good tactic generally, NO.. and can get you hurt much worse.. but I study the charts, and had faith in this PLANNED buy.. now I'm up 4k.. but that kind of stuff takes a lot of experience to do.. Other times I would of just taken the loss, eaten it and moved on if the charts told me that was a good idea..
If you want a good place to see free charts with indicators go here... https://cryptowat.ch/gdax/btcusd/1m
i wanted to finally come back and thank you for giving me these study points, and beginners tips. ive been studying the charts for hours at times, seemingly lost in a daze lol, I can literally see the demand rising and falling.
I have seen you mention that you always stick to your rules, I was wondering what they were exactly?
These transaction fees, and deposit fees, sure can beat you down if you dont know your way around the system! Im not sure if im going about it the wrong way. or if everyone charges a right nut to do business.
Coinomi charged me $10 fee for a $20 transfer to exchange yesterday
Yes, that is why it does not pay to move small amounts.. If your moving 1k or so, then its the cost of doing business but on the lower amounts it sucks.. and this is the reason BTC will never be a payment method for everyday things.. $5.00 gallon of milk, $10 fee transaction fee =$15.00 bottle of milk.. no bueno.. use LTC for transfers the fees are less..
GDAX has it close to $20,000 right now.
I wouldn't throw my savings or put loans on anything right now, because it is going to burst.
Yeah I saw that, then it shed like 22 percent in 30 minutes.. lol..
I was intending to hold my crypto for the very long term... but I'm now wondering if I should liquidize the lot of it and wait for the obvious price correction to buy back in.
Made way more than I ever expected from BTC, ETH and EMC2, while the others have grown nicely SALT, OMG.
I'm not a day trader, but I am finding this crazy, crazy rocketship super nerve-racking.
I take it you are beginning to feel the flashlight pressed against your back; lol. It's really a matter of risk vs. reward.. If you still own the underlying commodity you have no profits. You have paper profits, but nothing more. When you sell the commodity and convert to FIAT you have profits.. One thing I have learned is Greed will get you slaughtered, as will panic selling; lol. That said, you mentioned you are happy with what you have done, made way more than expected etc.. So why not bank some of it? So what if you sell, protect your Capital and the price goes up.. Who cares.. what did you lose? Alternatively say it flies the other direction because you wanted to milk out every last drop? What have you lost then? What I'm saying is. if you sell when you are up, you never lose. This mentality of I have lost when I bank my profits and the price goes up is the same mentality that is feeding the current market (FOMO).
Just take your capital, wait for another spot to get in and move in when the risk is considerably lower. I'm not a fan of sitting on a dildo shaped Bitcoin landmine at the moment. I'll wait and make my points on corrections and proper buy points. Look at LTC for example.. BTC is up a hundred bazillion percent but LTC did not rise accordingly, in fact its not feeling the gains, but it is taking the loss. It did the same thing down to $49.00 last time and $75.00 the time after that. Regardless of whether or not LTC is a valid crypto, serves a purpose etc. Rats jump ship on all cryptos when Bitcoin eat a dick, well maybe not all but 80 percent..
In all actuality there is no real reason for LTC or ETH to eat a dick when BTC crashes... Does Ford Stock Crash when Toyota's does? No they are different companies in the same industry. Crypto is not like that, with Crypto if Ford has bad earnings, then Mazda, Chevrolet, Toyota, Nissan, Ferrari etc.. all eat a piece of the shit pie. So to that end, sell or don't sell.. that really on you.. it's a matter of how much risk you want to carry. Be a squirrel and bury your nuts till spring, or be a Las Vegas hooker trying to milk every drop only to get a herpes infected blast to the face; sure there are condoms, but like bubbles they sometimes break..
Hahahaha, there is so much amazingness in this comment. I almost want to frame it.
The comment I made below I actually wrote before this page refreshed and saw your comment. So while I agree that maybe I should have just taken the principle out... as a very novice investor I wanted to bask in the joy of my profits while I'm travelling. I'm going the squirrel route until I can spend time properly analyzing the market... which will probably be a week and a bit from now... also known as one billion years in crypto. Who knows what Armageddon landscape I'll come back into. I'm hoping Mad Max-esque.
I'm hoping for post apocalyptic myself..
.
Aw yeah, I'll see you in the rubble.
Yup, trying to figure out which company will get the contract for rebuilding...lol
I actually did sell everything off just now. I've made 27% profit on my initial investment and will just sit in USD until the market settles a little. The common consensus around the traps is that something big has to happen in the next couple of days... which I'll be travelling a lot in. I'll probably miss some profits, maybe a lot, but I actually feel alright with my position... I'm now both profit and crash proof.
I started working on dumping my BTC a week ago because I saw this coming, and that’s how I found Steem.
Bitcoin has value as long as people give it value, but aside from using it as a store of value, it’s essentially useless. Gold is a store of value, but it also has practical applications. So, too, is ETH (thinking Cryptokitties here) and STEEM, which means these are the future of cryptos.
It’s my opinion that BTC will remain forever volatile, but it will serve as the main entry point into crypto from fiat currencies. For this reason, I believe, that one should never hodl BTC, at least not for long.
It's like a game of hot potato really, or musical chairs.. where will you be when the music stops....
i think you need to work heard boddy! nicee post
???????????? I need to work heard boddy! ???????//
You heard it here first boddy.