2/2/2018 The Market View and Trading Outlook

Not a bad bounce near the 3 day 77 period moving average of $7200. Is the bottom in? I doubt it..and I expect at least 1 more lower low lies on the horizon. That said, don’t expect it today or tomorrow as we breached the lower boundary of the descending wedge and will most likely make a run for the upper boundary of it before we face rejection once more. In the “short term” things are looking good and if we can decisively break $9200 we could make a run for somewhere in the neighborhood of $9800 or $10,200 before faltering again in favor of a lower low that pierces the $7000 decisively. I am somewhat indecisive on the pattern at the moment as my charts seem to be acting up. The market is choppy and caution is the proper course of action for the moment as the chance of violent reversal to the downside is ever present.

Onto the charts.

On the 12 I can’t really make a definitive call, though I’m leaning more towards a potentially “short term” bullish scenario; bull trap possibly? This call is based solely in the indicators. The MACD Histogram has its first solid bar since the start of the decline at $11,000 meaning that selling may be slowing to some degree and a short term buying period may be on the horizon. RSI has us coming out of an oversold condition though I don’t feel we spent enough time there and this bounce may simply be a reactionary high and bull trap.

The MACD/Signal line combo is still pointing decisively to the downside and on the way to making a lower low, while price is rebounding. As the price and the MACD are not in agreement for the moment it makes me question the validity of the upwards move.

Volume is still declining steadily in the longer term as is expected, but it should dwindle to trickle as we get closer to the end of the correction; that being the last of the Hodlers and weak hands giving in to downwards pressure. Currently volume is not showing that we have reached the end or the bottom.

If we look at the RSI, the bounce seems a bit quick when compared to historic performance. Notice the spacing (green lines) between previous oversold and overbought conditions and compare that to the current bounce; seems a bit suspect. Accordingly I see us getting jerked around a bit more; my scribble is the more likely scenario.

As I stated here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-actual-info Technical analysis is a pseudo science and much depends upon an individual’s subjective interpretation of the data. As a result when charting patterns the locations each person chooses to draw their lines can impact their interpretation of the data. I may draw my lines in one place and someone else may choose another; though we may be in agreement on the greater trend we may differ in opinion as to support and resistance levels. In looking objectively at the 12 we are either within the bottom boundary of the descending wedge having briefly fallen through or we are have decisively breached the bottom, attempting to get back in and headed for much lower territory.

Looking at the chart on tradeview, the descending wedge for @heajin would be red, whereas I would be green. So from his perspective we may have touched the lower boundary and are back inside moving towards the upper boundary somewhere around $9600. For me, being a bit more pessimistic, we could have broken below the lower boundary and are working to get back inside.

My rendition provides for a considerable amount of resistance at $9150; a likely rejection and only if that can be decisively broken would we move towards the upper boundary of what I have as around $9700 before we face rejection in favor of a likely sub $7000 low, likely in the $5000’s by the time it is all said in done in a couple weeks. It’s subjective, look at all information from all sources and make your own decisions.

As I’m making .85 percent of $3.00 USD for these posts I’m likely going to shorten up in the near future. Probably a pic of a chart, a short paragraph about upcoming orgasmic lunges and price ejaculation and let that be that as it seems to be a winning formula. That said I will probably post 10 or so of them per day.

Intraday a pullback to around $8500 from $9100 would be fairly normal and a 50% fib from $7900 to $9200, though $8380-ish may be the lower boundary of a bull wick on a flash sale and retracement towards making future gains if we stay bullish. May not pan out, or it may.. I keep options on the table.

My Previous Analysis:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/2-1-2018-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-actual-info

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-30-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-actual-info

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-29-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-27-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-26-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-25-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

---

Who Am I? STEEMIT INTRODUCTION

---