Great post and sound guidance, Chris!
It's essential to have a well-defined defined investment strategy and "stick to it!"
What you describe is not so much identifying "the bottom" but rather a means by which to quantify when the long-term investment trend has finally turned back to bullish from the current bear cycle in which it remains firmly entrenched.
Thanks passing-ground. You are right - it is not really finding "the" bottom. It is when to reenter the market with a high likelihood of starting another bull market.
I am missing your "grand cycle" view on BTC. Any chance you going to update that some time? I would be very interested to read about your perspective on the grand-cycle now it is clear that 20'000 was the top of wave 5.
Like you, I have searched for and ultimately developed my own proprietary indicators to determine when to move in and out of markets in best serving long-term time horizons. I added bitcoin to the narrow mix of markets I currently track. You can find a page out of my official report here.
In keeping with my quantified trend model for BTC, the "Cycle" degree of trend remains down in a deep 2nd wave decline. With a decline of 84% already in place, the 2-wave at cycle dimension can bottom at any time going forward - or fresh new lows could take place to facilitate such a terminal as well.
In terms of "timing," I've already alluded to such here, however, as we both seem to agree - the only way to quantify high probability entry and exit points is via a predefined model that has a successful track record in doing so.
All of the other "predictive" and anticipatory technical speculation is just that - speculation. And though it can be entertaining and amusing to ponder the suggestions thereof, it more often than not leads to poor investment decisions. As mentioned before, it's best to have a simple and reliable strategy in place - and then nurture the iron-willed discipline to follow it to a tee - win, lose, or draw.