Time and percentage move comparison of the 4 Bitcoin Bubbles

in #bitcoin7 years ago

If you bought in at 20,000 USD and are hodling, what might you expect?

If Bitcoin is indeed in a popped bubble and is not done long-term, how long might it be till the next bubble peak? You can see with the past 3 bubbles, the time till the next bubble peak ranges from just under a year (234 days) to just over 4 years(1480 days).

4 bubble comparison.JPG

Looking at percentage swings, in terms of the secondary high onward, it has acted more like the second 2013 bubble that took 4 years to get to the next peak.

4Bubbles- % chart.png

However, in terms of speed (assuming the points I chose are accurate), it's acting more like the 2011 bubble and the first 2013 bubble, which took much less time to get to the next bubble peaks.

4Bubbles- days chart.png

It's possible that it doesn't drop from it's current price, and continues to rise to new highs, calling the last 2 months a correction. Then the comparisons aren't meaningful. But, if it is a burst bubble playing out, we're probably looking at 1-4 years until new highs.

Any thoughts or criticisms?

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