7 scenarios for the end of Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been around for almost 10 years, and its value has risen to nearly 100%, but it seems the story is predicting the dark future of electronic money. has always attracted the attention of the community.

Before taking into account the speculation, let's acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has been judged to be dead, at least 200 times.

Even though those who make predictions think themselves smart, the author will still consider them to be suffering from "Bitcoin Syndrome". They continue to make "fatal" predictions for Bitcoin, and witness those predictions being denied by Bitcoin itself.

Technically, Bitcoin will persist as long as a few Bitcoin PCs operate on the network. Only a radical scenario can lead to the end of Bitcoin. In the next few years, this electronic money is still the top cryptocurrency unless the community self destroys it due to its greedy nature or carelessness.

If you've ever been shaken by those predictions, it was believed Bitcoin would really go away, the author of this article will point out that Bitcoin's death will only appear in one of the seven scenarios below. here:
Scenario 1: Scenario of most mats.
Possible occurrence (next 5 years): almost zero

If all the sources of electricity, internet, and data communications across the globe were suddenly paralyzed, Bitcoin nodes would not be able to connect. Therefore, the whole system will become useless.

Once the world wide web is down, the Bitcoin community will be a little confused. However, theoretically, the system will restart from the longest chain.

In short, if Bitcoin software is launched on the network, technically, this electronic money will continue to exist.

Scenario 2: Serious code error
Potential (5 years): low

In this second scenario, a Bitcoin update may contain a bug that is comparable to the bugs of the infamous DAO project (built on blockchain Ethereum), which causes system-wide harm. the system.

Although the fix community fixes a bug by installing a new version and rebooting the system, the event will surely impact Bitcoin prices, even leading to splits (fork). .

The Bitcoin community is aware of this risk: any code modification should be reviewed and tested on a consistent basis. In fact, only NASA is capable of producing perfect and unblemished software codes.

Scenario 3: Split (fork)
Potential (5 years): low

Bitcoins can be split up hundreds more if there is technical disagreement in the community. Bitcoin Cash is Bitcoin's first cousin, created last August. But the appearance of Bitcoin Cash does not harm Bitcoin. Bitcoin Cash has made the network more open and less energy-efficient.

If the split continues, the author believes that Bitcoin will lose its dominance. However, for the benefit of the whole community, the author believes that they will share hands so this situation does not happen.

Situation 4: The government hands out
Probability (5 years): Medium - low

The government can not control Bitcoin because its working currency is decentralized. However, with their powers, governments can control and restrict the use of Bitcoin.

For example, the government may force banks to stop providing services to cryptocurrency-related companies, or banning commercial activities in this area. But if the ban only appears in a single country, the effect on the entire cryptocurrency market is minimal. Because businesses can move their operations to countries with cryptocurrency-friendly policies such as Japan, Australia ...

This is exactly what happened after China cracked down on local trading floors last year. Possibly, following China some other countries will have similar moves. However, the author does not think that a ban on global scale can occur (imagine the United Nations reached a consensus in this matter?).

Bitcoin was legalized in Japan in April. If the United States, Europe, England and China embrace cryptocurrency on a large scale, this would be bad.

A more likely future is that countries will jointly set up a legal framework, administer the cryptocurrency market to collect taxes, and protect investors.

Situation 5: Attacked
Potential (5 years): Medium - High

This scenario can appear in many different ways.

The first would be a 51% attack with a self-attack on the Bitcoin protocol. Theoretically, this can be done, but the ratio is quite low. Because of this, 51% of the attackers must accept self-abolition of all profits. That is, they have to invest a lot in mining equipment and power, and then ... destroy them.

Another nice-looking attack is the attack on an application created on the Bitcoin protocol. When attacked in 2014, Mt. Gox holds 70% of Bitcoin. Four years after this historic attack, we witnessed hundreds of other active exchanges. If one of these transaction platforms is attacked and a large amount of Bitcoin is stolen, Bitcoin prices will be shaken. However, Bitcoin will recover and history has proven that.

If you do not believe, read this one. Recently, $ 400 million of NEM was stolen from Coincheck and the NEM price dropped only 15-20% and quickly recovered shortly thereafter.

Scenario 6: Appearance of competitors with Bitcoin
Probability (5 years): Medium - Low

A high-yielding currency, a lower transaction fee than Bitcoin will appear? This money will replace Bitcoin?

In fact, Bitcoin will be defeated when the economic benefits are no longer good. For management purposes and economic benefits, the idea of ??issuing a UN-backed global currency is under review. But in the next five years, the author believes that this will remain an idea on paper.

In this situation, Bitcoin can be eliminated if the electricity price increases, the mining is no longer as beneficial as before, the miner will automatically bid farewell to this electronic money. At the same time, only mining companies with the ability to own cheap energy resources enough to continue playing.

So, if this situation happens, Bitcoin needs to find ways to reduce the cost of maintaining security, security and decentralization.

Situation 7: Market abandoned
Probability (5 years): Low

If startups fail to bring virtual values ??into the real world, confidence in the cryptocurrency market will gradually diminish. At this point, the growth of the market will slow down, the ability to attract investors is diminished.

From a personal point of view, the author believes that start-ups will succeed on the path to building value in the real world. The market is still young to say that it has reached a period of decline. Historically, there is always a percentage of the market's ability to look back, instead of turning away.

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