Price of bitcoin at the end of 2018
Hello everyone
This is a quick summary of a very interesting article I read this morning, by Xoel López Barata. I am outlining the main conclusions in plain English here as the article can be a bit technical and challenging if you are not well versed in statistics. The full details of the article are shown at the bottom of this short story.
Predicting future price
Although past performance doesn’t indicate future performance, the author of this article has used a sound method called Monte Carlo simulation to predict the future price of bitcoin using past pattern of price variation. In short, if it was observed in the last 12 months that the maximum price increase in a day for bitcoin was +21% and the maximum price decrease in a day was -19%, this price variation range will be used to estimate how bitcoin is likely to vary from one day to the other.
Results
Source: Xoel López Barata
As shown on the above graph, the end of year price for btc is ranging between $1,000 and $1,000,000. More precisly, you can observe on this graph that most scenarios lead to a btc price between $10,000 and $100,000 by the end of 2018.
Final prediction
Source: Xoel López Barata
To make it easier to read, the article's author plotted the distribution of the end of year price on a 'bell' graph which shows the probability of each price to be reached by the end of the year.
Looking at the above graph, it now appears that the most likely price for bitcoin by end of 2018 is about $55,000.
References
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I’ve simulated the bitcoin price for the whole 2018. You won’t believe the result!: https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2
That's interesting. I think the rise to 20k at the end of last year was a bit too quick. Might have some difficult weeks ahead but hopefully that 55k will be surpassed by the end of 2018.
It was a pretty big rise indeed and we are now struggling to reach $13k again. As often with btc, we'll probably see a large price jump at some stage and will fly through the $13k level to reach $20k over a short period of time. I reckon $50k by the end of 2018 is a reasonable expectation though.
wow $55k, what will the pullback or entrancement be at? with bitcoin having 20% and 30% and more replacements there will be huge gains to be made going up and down
There will be huge gains to be made in btc indeed. The issue is more about alt coin which are probably going to see major red candles when the price of btc goes up. It will be a matter of exiting alts at the right time.
I like alts but I am in only 2 alt coins. what about you, are you in a lot?