Random *beep* crypto predictions (#1)

Everyone tries to predict where markets are going, right? I will start saying that NO ONE KNOWS.

I usually post only serious content, so I thought: "why don't I just take what I've learned so far and throw out some random predictions to check again in a year and see how close I got?"

It's more like a fun exercise than an actual prediction. This will actually be a new section in the blog with "random *beep* crypto predictions" of all kinds. Do not take this seriously, I DON'T KNOW WHAT I'M DOING.

So here is my chart and below my considerations for bitcoin during the rest of this year:

In purple we have the alt seasons. In green the bull runs on BTC, that bring alts down. In red, the BTC corrections that also bring alts down (panic time).

We're currently in a purple box:

• BTC was hanging at around 6600k, everyone and their mother bearish, shorts at all time high. It went up $1k in some minutes. (Broke a falling wedge.)
• Now people are getting confident that this might be the end of the correction. Seems like no one is talking about a $4k bottom anymore. That might be an indication that BTC will go down again.
• Most of the alts reached what can be considered their bottom and started going up again. There's some consensus that this might be the beginning of an alt season. I think it is, but that doesn't mean BTC can't can down more. It's a good time to trade alts, but cautiously.
• I don't feel like there was enough despair and pain yet for BTC to have hit the bottom. There's more damage to be done by the market makers.
• There will be another double top or just a failure to make a high and then a dump. Panic for people that bought again and people selling alts in fear. A nice spike in volume will bring it up and it will start to stabilize.
• Most alts can't go down much more than they did, so there might be some retracements or nice double bottoms and they will go up again. Might be the beginning of a real alt season as BTC stabilizes. Best time to buy alts is after a panic dump.

Next, a green box:

• As BTC regains levels, market begins to be bullish again. Alts still doing good. People still won't know if BTC hit the bottom.
• BTC starts running up strong, regaining past highs and alts start dropping after making good runs. Confirmed bull trend and end of the alt season.
• BTC gets to a new all time high and alts go back to their bottoms.

Then another purple box:

• As BTC slows down, people (whales, actually) jump again into weak alts and they start pumping. New alt season.
• BTC struggles and there's a consensus that it's a correction, a bear market again. Alts start correcting too. Panic takes over yet again!

Right now I'm on alts but I'm cautious. Still looking for opportunities to short BTC. If this is actually the beginning of a new bull trend, then well, I'll do what I can to minimize my loses.

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Stay tuned for more posts. Until then you can check my previous posts at:

• 2018-04-11 Capital preservation and the 2%
• 2018-04-07 Moving Averages (SMA, EMA): How to use and calculate them (spreadsheet and code included
• 2018-03-31 An all too ordinary story of an inexperienced crypto trader (#2)
• 2018-03-25 An all too ordinary story of an inexperienced crypto trader (#1)

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, I write for informational and educational purposes only. This article expresses solely my opinion, make of it what you wish.