A better stock to flow model?!
What if there was an even more accurate model for predicting the price of bitcoin?!
The stock to flow model has been incredible accurate in predicting the price of bitcoin, but what if there was potentially an even more accurate model?
Well, that may be the case...
This model was developed to take into account the rate of increase in the money supply, something that is very important considering what we witnessed last year...
(Source: https://twitter.com/all_things_btc/status/1452914729756807168)
Interestingly enough, this model points to a fair value of roughly $94k vs a stock to flow price of $77k currently...
More on it can be seen in that link pasted above...
I said about $100K, so maybe it's as accurate as statistics models can be... No model is perfect...
Since tomorrow is unknown, models can never be perfect.
Exactly... That's why best models become more accurate when time passes as they mutate to add new variables.
Like you have said before, some models essentially try to find similar patterns in the past and overlay them to current data to see which one most closely matches. Assuming that longer match can be found in the past, more likely the current pattern continues the same way, but that's where exceptions also come to play.
Sometimes we have to take account also how many times shorter matches have happened and how likely they happen after another shorter match.
Yep, si.