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RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Update: Could Altcoins Rise while BTC corrects? Check out this analysis!
Watch for sharp decline of BTC through the end of the year once CME futures go live next week and market markets start shorting en masse.
BE CAREFUL SHORTING BTC 🤓
Yeah.....As Haejin says....and I have proven to be the dummy going against it several times......NEVER SHORT A BULL MARKET!!!
These futures are cash settled so shorting a futures contract does not actually result in the sale of a Bitcoin.
Thank you for continually pointing this out.....I'm being serious....thank you!
Nice work thanks! Also serious!!
That's not the point though. Almost all futures traded are settled in cash. I've been trading futures for a living for the last 10 years, I've never taken delivery of barrels of oil, or cotton, or gold.
The point is that a legitimate futures market will allow major investors that aren't Bitcoin superfans, like most people buying bitcoins since its inception, a mechanism to short and drive the price of the Bitcoin futures contract down.
The a large dip in the future contract price will cause trader on the open market to slow down their buying of bitcoin, pause, or sell off to an alterative investment, this is where the rise of other coins will come in.
If they short......they will lose. They know better than to short a bull market. Not to mention it doesn't matter. Unless the price progression changes sometime soon, the projection stays pretty much the same despite ANY news or events. At this point, it looks like they will get in just in time for the dip shown above. People will freak out about the futures and blame them....but it's just a healthy correction, then we're back off and running. This train ain't slowing down anytime soon the way it looks now.
/xbt[f8]
Current bitcoin future contract.
$35,000 profit per contract so far if you would have shorted at the beginning of the contract.
https://imgur.com/3Dnob8Z.jpg
This is true, however the primary difference is that the price of the commodities that you listed are decided by the price in the futures market. Whereas, the price of Bitcoin in the futures market is based on the real price of Bitcoin on the exchanges.
Certainly a possibility. There will be some sort of impact. I'm really just trying to point out that it's not a 1-1 relationship...
They are not permitted to short at this stage with Futures - also you need to understand the CASH settled futures markets and the margin requirements involved.
That doesn't even make sense! Of course you will be able to buy AND sell.
Anyways I just talked to a high level broker at TD/Thinkorswim who said everything should be operating as normal when the system goes live.