RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Mid-Day Update: BOTTOM COULD BE DONE!!! $26,440 Short Term Target!!
So far, I only trade in day time, and I hardly do any limit trades. You see, the difference that makes a trade worthwhile is about $300 up or down, no need to try below that - that is what algos/bots do all the time. Setting stop limits is of course basically the better method but in practice it's also so clumsy and time consuming. I like to immediately see what happens... I do act a lot like the bots do, it basically doesn't matter if the general tendency is up or down, you win two thirds of the trades and lose one thirds, in essence you always win but the gains are little. If stop limits work smoothly at the place you trade, then go for it - test it out a few times where there's no risk and find out, and then tell me ;)
Oh, I keep watching two charts all the time, I'm a visual person... I mark my limits on the charts, with yellow markers. Very intuitive.
Thanks for taking the time to answer.
To sum my question: At what -% do you accept a loss?
If for example in a 5 min candle you think you bought the dip...but it turns out it goes lower.
The overall tendency is very important, it's not that II entirely disregard the allover scenario, expecting to either rise or fall - this is the context I'm operating in and that enables me to relativize.
This is what bots DON'T do...
As an example, I made some profits yesterday entirely on BTC (no need to jump from coin to coin, that only makes it confusing and I do have a life and can only concentrate on one thing at a time) and I sold my btc at 15300, having bought at 14762 (I bought the other half at 12500 a few days ago, hodling that) - however I bought again at 14500, expecting another rise towards 15000 which never happened, so got out again at just above 14100 realizing this would go down way more... and this morning it had fallen to 13300. Now I'm a bit undecided if I should buy at the current 13+-, expecting a fall down to 9.5 k or so...
but also expecting a rise to 17 k hopefully this coming week - why bother, it's Christmas after all and this sort of thing can be a bit ennervating in the long run ;)
If you look at the one hour chart, you will find we've been forming another little head and shoulders... and if you measure that it leads downwards to about 10500 depending on the exact way you measure the distance, and so i tend to expect what the Fibonnacci retracement says about the entire correction so far, measured from the September low (see attached).
In a word, I'm trying to get intuitive at this, which is what always worked best for me. In that sense, it seems to work best on the graphic level, as in charts rather than numbers, or geometry rather than arithmetics. This is why I cannot give a definitive answer to the percentage question.
In the end, it's your decision where you draw the line between fear and greed ;)